王毅：永远不会有“港独”再上街的一天
8/04/2021
中国国务委员兼外长王毅8月4日在东亚峰会外长会上发言后，美国、日本等国家提出新疆、香港问题，王毅要求第二次发言，予以驳斥。
据中国外交部官网消息，王毅表示，果然不出所料，美国等个别国家要利用这个多边平台对中国的内部事务进行攻击抹黑。他说：“这些陈词滥调本不值一驳，东盟各国也都没有附和你们，但出于对等原则，中方当然有权利予以驳斥。”
王毅说，新疆、香港事务都是中国内政，对中国的内部事务指手画脚、造谣抹黑，严重违反国际关系基本准则，严重破坏国家主权平等原则。他说：“对于这种恶劣行径，你们来一次，我们就坚决批驳一次。”
王毅强调，这些年来，新疆维吾尔族人口增长翻番，人均寿命倍增，居民收入年年增长，教育水平越来越高，何来“种族灭绝”？要讲“种族灭绝”的话，美国当年对印第安人大肆屠杀才是真正的种族灭绝。美国到处发动战争，致使大量无辜平民伤亡才是真正的反人类罪。
王毅说，维吾尔自治区政府本着公开透明态度，多次用事实和数据驳斥各种谎言，新疆少数民族群众包括维吾尔族兄弟纷纷站出来用亲身经历反击各种虚假信息。美国对此却视而不见、充耳不闻，表现出来的这种偏执，是典型的西方式傲慢和无理。
王毅表示，香港国安法的制定以及选举制度的改革恢复了香港的稳定，完善了香港的法治，确保了香港居民以及所有在港各国人士的正当合法权益，使一国两制得以行稳致远，70%的香港民众对当前局势感到满意。
他说：“你们现在竟然还要表达所谓关切，关切什么呢？是想让香港重回混乱动荡吗？是想让‘港独’势力再次上街吗？我要明确地告诉你们，死了这条心吧，不可能再等到那一天了!”
香港大學研究生會-金燦榮劉智鵬教授趣談中美關係和世界格局
2/23/2021
2019年2月23日14:00，在香港大學黃麗松講堂，研究生會舉辦首屆致知論壇“風雲變幻下的世界格局和大國關系”。本次致知論壇邀請到了中國人民大學國際關系學院副院長金燦榮教授，香港嶺南大學華南及香港曆史研究部主任劉智鵬教授，與鳳凰衛視著名時事評論員尹乃菁女士共同分析國際變化形勢，抓住時代機遇。近400人的會場，座無虛席。
2019年2月23日14:00，在香港大學黃麗松講堂，研究生會舉辦首屆致知論壇“風雲變幻下的世界格局和大國關系”。本次致知論壇邀請到了中國人民大學國際關系學院副院長金燦榮教授，香港嶺南大學華南及香港曆史研究部主任劉智鵬教授，與鳳凰衛視著名時事評論員尹乃菁女士共同分析國際變化形勢，抓住時代機遇。近400人的會場，座無虛席。
Nov 14, 2020
Feb 19, 2021
无赖大国 | “后特朗普时代” 美国将走向何方？贝克利称美国仍是未来五十年唯一的世界强国
塔夫茨大学国际政治专业的副教授迈克尔·贝克利用两个长变量——人口结构和技术创新能力，论证了美国即便从国际秩序中退缩，但仍然会是未来五十年唯一的世界强国，任何其他国家都没有可能和美国竞争全球霸主。
贝克利有一个自己非常有意思的核心洞见。他说，你要做最强大的国家是一回事，但要担当世界秩序的领导者是另外一回事，这两者之间并没有必然的联系。就像在一个班级上，你要做最强的学霸是一回事，但并不一定你要当班长。 这是一个颠覆主流认识的观点。
哈佛教授沃尔特：四个要点说明美国的好运即将用尽
文章来源: 星岛日报
01/31/2021
《外交政策》杂志近日刊出美国哈佛大学国际关系教授沃尔特的评论认为，美苏上个世纪冷战的结果是出现了短暂的单极世界，全世界已没有任何强大的竞争对手能挑战美国，可今天还是这样吗？美国人现在还能继续认为世界就是他们的囊中之物吗？不管他们表现得如何不负责任，事情总是会好起来？可能是，但也可能不是。以下为沃尔特的论点，以四个原因解释为什么说美国的好运可能正在耗尽：
首先，美国自建国以来所享有的自由安全已不像过去那么稳固。举个现成的例子：在不到一年的时间里，新冠病毒的致死人数已超过了美国在一战、朝鲜战争和越南战争期间的战死人数总和。而且我们还得知，有一股外国势力（一般认为是俄罗斯）最近非法侵入了大量政府信息系统，其中许多系统还是美国国家安全体系的一部分。
第二大隐忧是中国，这是一个比前苏联更强大的对手。从1776年到上世纪90年代中期，美国人可能收获到了一长串胜利，但自那以后，中国的成绩单更为亮眼。中国的经济规模将很快大幅超过美国，它早已远离毁灭性战争的威胁，其统治精英也相信他们注定会成为本世纪的一大（如果不是唯一的）领导力量，他们的制度模式总体运行良好，他们充分参与关键国际机构的活动中并出现在这个世界的每一个地区。
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质疑美国是否会持续走运的第三个依据是，美国人已开始自己伤害自己。伤害清单很长：故意制造出来的两极分化以及由此产生的政治僵局使得美国难以及时采取行动去应对重大问题；对“自由”盲目崇拜以至于数百万美国人认为在疫情期间拒不佩戴口罩不是愚蠢的行为而是英雄壮举等等。
还有气候变化。如果大气层继续升温，那么无论多么有利的地缘政治条件都无法拯救美国。拥有一个庞大的经济体、一群训练有素的科学家和工程师以及一个具有创新能力的私人部门，可能有助于美国以各种方式减轻、适应和调整环境问题带来的压力，但他们所要应对的挑战却每年都会变得更加严峻。
VOICE
America’s History of Luck Is Running Out
The country’s rise was fueled by fortunate circumstances that seem unlikely to last much longer.
BY STEPHEN M. WALT | DECEMBER 23, 2020
The United States is the luckiest country in modern history. It began as a set of marginal European outposts, separated from the settlers’ home countries by a difficult sea voyage. When the colonies gained independence, they were weak, poor, and fractious. But in less than a century and a half, those 13 original colonies had expanded across North America, survived a civil war, driven other great powers from the Western Hemisphere, and created the world’s largest and most dynamic economy. That ascent didn’t stop until the end of the 20th century, when victory in the Cold War left the United States alone at the pinnacle of power. For a little while.
Americans like to attribute this remarkable story to their ancestors’ virtues, the enlightened wisdom of the Founding Fathers, and the intrinsic merits of America’s peculiar blend of liberal democratic capitalism. But in addition to the considerable cruelty displayed toward the native population and the slaves imported from Africa, good fortune played a major role as well.
Americans were fortunate that North America was rich with natural resources and fertile land, traversed by navigable rivers, and had a mostly temperate climate. And from the very beginning, the United States benefited from rivalries among the existing great powers. France backed the American Revolution in order to weaken its British rival, and the new nation doubled its territory when Napoleon needed money to wage war in Europe and was willing to sell the Louisiana Purchase at a bargain price. War in Europe also helped the United States survive its foolish decision to invade Canada in the War of 1812; Britain was too busy defeating Napoleon to turn its full strength against its obnoxious former colonists. The United States gradually attracted more attention as it expanded across the continent and took Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California from Mexico, but the European powers spent most of the time competing with each other and for the most part left the United States alone. By 1900, British concerns about a rising Germany led them to abandon their territorial claims in the Pacific Northwest and South America and appease the United States. And at that moment, the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 became a reality.
Indeed, no other great power has enjoyed the so-called free security that America has possessed since its founding. Apart from Britain, every other major power has been invaded at least once in the past 200 years, and several of them have been conquered and at least temporarily occupied. Even Britain lost some 50,000 civilians to German bombings during World War II. Foreign troops last occupied U.S. soil during the War of 1812, and the continental United States was effectively unscathed during the two world wars that decimated Europe and Asia during the 20th century. That free security also permitted the United States to be the last major power to enter both wars, to suffer the fewest losses, and to emerge in a dominant position when the fighting stopped.
To be sure, U.S. leaders also made some smart decisions that took advantage of these lucky breaks. They adopted a constitution that privileged individual freedom and spurred the creation of a boisterous capitalist economy. They opened the continent to immigrants from all over the world and managed to contain the frictions that waves of immigrants occasioned. And while the shameful legacy of slavery continues to blight the American experience, the North’s victory in the Civil War prevented a permanent division of the continent and allowed the reunited country to reach its full power potential.
Since becoming a great power, the United States has also been fortunate in its choice of enemies. Imperial Germany was a daunting military power, but its armed forces had been depleted by the time the American Expeditionary Force arrived in 1918. The Nazi Wehrmacht was even more capable, but Adolf Hitler was an incompetent strategist, and the Soviet Union did most of the work to defeat Germany anyway. Imperial Japan’s economy was roughly a fifth the size of America’s in 1941, its wartime leadership was deeply divided, and it already had thousands of troops bogged down fighting in China. World War II in the Pacific was hardly a cakewalk, but the outcome was not in doubt once the United States mobilized for war.
The Soviet Union was by far America’s most formidable adversary, but the deck was still heavily stacked in America’s favor. The Soviet economy was significantly smaller, its allies were much weaker and less reliable, and it faced serious rivals on several frontiers while America sat unthreatened in the Western Hemisphere. The Soviet command economy was a wonderland of waste and inefficiency, and Soviet leaders had to devote a much higher percentage of GDP to defense just to keep the United States in sight. Mikhail Gorbachev’s belated efforts to reform the system failed, and the Soviet Union collapsed not with a bang but with a whimper.
The result was a brief unipolar moment when the United States faced no serious rivals and both politicians and pundits convinced themselves that America had found the magic formula for success in an increasingly globalized world. The hubris of the 1990s was to be expected, perhaps: No other country could claim such a long and mostly unbroken run of success, where ill fortune never seemed to hold the country back for long.
Is this still the case today? Can Americans continue to assume that the world is their oyster and that things will always turn out right no matter how irresponsibly they seem to behave?
Maybe, but maybe not. Here are four reasons why the United States’ luck just might be running out.
First of all, the free security that the nation has known since its founding is not quite as profound as it used to be. Don’t get me wrong: Having no serious enemies nearby is still a considerable benefit, and those two vast oceanic moats still protect the United States from a fair number of potential problems. The Pentagon is formally the “Defense Department,” but America’s armed forces don’t spend much time or money defending U.S. soil directly. Instead, they go into harm’s way in order to try to shape political conditions in a host of faraway places. Why can they do that? Because Americans don’t have to worry about an invasion from Canada or Mexico—or anybody else.
Unfortunately, 2020 has given us a grim reminder that the protection the United States once enjoyed is not as ironclad as it once was. Case in point: In less than a year, the coronavirus has killed more Americans than World War I, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined. As I write this, the daily death toll in the United States is larger than the number of Americans killed on 9/11. Distance still matters, but it does not protect against every danger.
We also learned last week that a foreign power (generally believed to be Russia) has hacked into a vast array of government computer systems, including many that are part of the U.S. national security establishment. The full extent of the damage is still unknown, but the incident illustrates another vulnerability that distance cannot diminish. The United States is still fortunate to be located where it is, but that advantage is not as great as it once was.
The second cause for concern is China, which is a far more formidable rival than the Soviet Union ever was. Americans may have racked up a long winning streak from 1776 to the mid-1990s, but China boasts a much better record since then. China’s economy will soon be substantially larger than that of the United States, it has stayed out of ruinous wars, its ruling elites believe they are destined to be a (if not the) leading power in this century, their model of single-party state capitalism has generally worked well, and they are fully engaged in key international institutions and in every region in the world. While the Trump administration has been busy flirting with various forms of protectionism, China has been negotiating and signing new trade and investment deals. Beijing’s mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak allowed it to spread abroad, but its subsequent response (and the cooperation of the population) has kept its own death toll below a reported 5,000 lives (in a country of 1.4 billion people). As a result, the Chinese economy is back open for business. The United States had more time to prepare for the pandemic, but the number of dead is well over 300,000, and the U.S. economy is still devastated by lockdowns and other pandemic-related restrictions.
The challenge China poses could be overstated. China’s per capita income is still significantly lower than America’s, and its new power surplus (i.e., the amount of wealth that can be mobilized to shape events elsewhere once domestic needs are met) is smaller. Its splashy Belt and Road Initiative hasn’t gone nearly as well as Xi Jinping hoped, and its recent embrace of belligerent “wolf warrior” diplomacy and its heavy-handed approach toward dissidents, trading partners, and its Uighur minority have sparked growing concerns about China’s long-term intentions. Even so, only an incurable optimist would assume that China will fall by the wayside as readily as America’s earlier rivals did.
A third reason to wonder about the United States’ continued good fortune is the series of wounds Americans decided to inflict on themselves. The list is long: the ; the deliberately manufactured polarization and the resulting gridlock that makes timely action on vital issues difficult to impossible; the fetishizing of “liberty” to the point that millions of Americans think refusing to wear a mask in the middle of a pandemic is not stupid but heroic; the enduring public prominence of a phalanx of liars, charlatans, and trolls who have built lucrative careers spewing a toxic blend of falsehoods and hatred; the pervasive influence of well-funded lobbying organizations whose commitment to truth is paper-thin; the distorting impact of money in U.S. politics and a ramshackle electoral system that increasingly enshrines minority rule; and a foreign-policy elite that is largely free from accountability and seems incapable of learning from past mistakes. I could go on, but you get the idea.
And then there’s climate change. The atmosphere doesn’t care what you or I happen to think about this problem; it’s going to follow the laws of physics and chemistry no matter what we choose to believe. Humans are free to deny the reality of climate change, but the planet isn’t paying attention. Favorable geopolitics won’t rescue the United States if the atmosphere keeps heating up (though some other countries will face even greater hardships), and having big-deck aircraft carriers, sophisticated ballistic missiles, state-of-the-art anti-submarine warfare or cyberwarfare capabilities, and the other trappings of a modern great power won’t help on this front either. A large economy, well-trained scientists and engineers, and an innovative private sector may help the country mitigate, adapt, and adjust in various ways, but the challenges they will have to address grow ever more daunting each year. When you marry what is happening to the planet to the political dysfunctions discussed above, it’s easy to imagine how the United States’ long run of good fortune could come to a sad end in a generation or two.
Am I being too gloomy? I hope so. The United States retains many strengths—especially in science and technology—and its potential rivals face serious problems of their own. A return to the unchecked primacy of the 1990s is not in the cards, but intelligent reforms could go a long way to preserving the security and prosperity of the country along with its core political values. The imminent departure of the Worst President Ever will surely help.
Branch Rickey famously remarked that “luck is the residue of design.” Americans should no longer assume that success is simply their birthright or that Otto von Bismarck was right when he reportedly quipped that there is “special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.” If Americans want to enjoy a future as favorable as their past, it will take a willingness to work together that has gone missing for a couple of decades. If they can’t bring it back, the United States’ long run of luck is likely to come to an end.
Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.
Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/23/americas-history-of-luck-is-running-out/