遏制中俄？西班牙学者：各国不必为美国利益买单
4/27/2021
核心提示：文章称，中国就在那里，俄罗斯也是一样，除了在涉及自己利益的领域(感到受到威胁或被剥夺追求成功的权利)，中俄并没有那么好斗。每个国家都应该把握进行谈判的各种机会，而不应为一个必将衰落的超级大国的利益买单。
参考消息网4月26日报道 西班牙《起义报》网站4月23日发表题为《中国和美国交接的转折点》的文章，作者为西班牙维克大学-加泰罗尼亚中央大学经济学教授费尔南多·G·哈恩·科利，文章称，美国应该意识到、接受并面对自己处境的变化，然后寻求尽可能缓慢地放弃霸权，以确保自己的后院稳固，而不对突如其来的攻势束手无策。（中国）这个新兴大国的崛起已经实现。许多国家的利益已经与中国的投资联系在一起。全文摘编如下：
在进行预测时，或者说是在对巨大的社会变化进行预测时，历史上长期存在的问题会令人难以判断划时代的转折点将在何时出现。
我们无法从最近的历史中瞥见这种变化，各种事件的喧嚣增大了分析的难度，需要凭直觉来解释一些迹象。这是随着全球化的到来而出现的局面。
美国应接受处境变化
新世界的开端已经到来，已经习惯于在全球化框架内采取行动并对该框架充满信心的人们感到难以置信。但在中国势不可挡的崛起带来转折之后，现在已经有了一条新的轨迹。在美国，前总统特朗普在总统任期内将相当多的美国人担心可能即将发生的事情当作了自己的政治资本：美国安全利益受损、霸权地位丧失、美国将疲于自保。出现闪电就意味着风暴快要来临，我们还未失去这种预判的本能。
一旦越过转折点，变化将逐步显现，尽管现在我们很难预料到它的具体表现，其中最主要和最明显的是各种力量的聚集，编织成一个新的全球网格：协议、合同、授予的权利、便利的互惠、风险共担的伙伴关系，为新的大国权力打下基础。这就是中国目前在走的路。
可以理解的是，“唱诗班里的大表哥”（美国）吹响了“集合的军号”，以使他的所有盟友都列队听候其调遣，以便在贸易、技术等领域以及各种国际机构和场合中遏制俄罗斯和中国。美国的意图是遏制中俄以及中俄的共同计划和关系发展。美国要求盟国出资本身就是其力量衰弱的迹象，从中东撤军也是如此，其目的是集中精力阻挠中国崛起。
衰落的大国不愿相信拐点已经到来，并因此对转折点一说进行否认，这是合乎逻辑的。这样做能让那些仍然相信自己有足够实力设定规则并享有特权的人暂时感到安心。但这并不能阻止另一个超级大国的崛起，尽管后者还没有得到应有的承认。同样可以理解的是，美国的执念促使他试图说服盟友也持有同样的观点，并站好队形，尽管这样做为时已晚。美国应该意识到、接受并面对自己处境的变化，然后寻求尽可能缓慢地放弃霸权，以确保自己的后院稳固，而不对突如其来的攻势束手无策。
欧盟没必要为美买单
奢望俄罗斯和中国的关系破裂？这已经是不可能发生的事情了，因为至少在中期内，中俄的客观利益是一致的，它们的资源和能力是互补的。
孤立中国？也是不可能的。在给跨国公司，特别是美国的跨国公司带来30到40年的利益之后，这个新兴大国的崛起已经实现。许多国家的利益已经与中国的投资联系在一起。
成为中国的绊脚石？天真，荒谬。不要忘记，绊脚石最终会被无情地清除掉，而不是被温柔地忽略。各国应该更好地匹配本国的利益，让历史以和平的方式将每个人置于应有的位置。
听命于美国的官僚机构，例如欧盟，也不会有什么作为。欧盟将退化成一个负责研究和产品技术协调的部门，以免因成员国的国家利益逐渐突出而发生自爆。这些国家利益是合乎逻辑的，也是人们想要的，是不同文化和不同生产结构导致的必然结果。一旦越过了转折点，屈从于共同的纪律就变得不再值得，各国应该与正在争夺主导地位的新兴力量进行双边谈判。有些国家在某些方面会获益多一些，在另一些方面则获益少一些。在这种新情况下，没有什么能阻碍贸易关系的维持和改善。
在到达转折点之后，各国当局应该根据其民众的生活水平和合理目标调整其决策，以尽最大可能改善全体民众的福祉。中国就在那里，俄罗斯也是一样，除了在涉及自己利益的领域（感到受到威胁或被剥夺追求成功的权利），中俄并没有那么好斗。每个国家都应该把握进行谈判的各种机会，而不应为一个必将衰落的超级大国的利益买单。
China beating US by being more like America
Cultivating human capital will be essential if the US rather than China is to be the base of the next industrial revolution
By BRANDON J WEICHERT
4/25/2021
The United States transitioned from an agrarian backwater into an industrialized superstate in a rapid timeframe. One of the most decisive men in America’s industrialization was Samuel Slater.
As a young man, Slater worked in Britain’s advanced textile mills. He chafed under Britain’s rigid class system, believing he was being held back. So he moved to Rhode Island.
Once in America, Slater built the country’s first factory based entirely on that which he had learned from working in England’s textile mills – violating a British law that forbade its citizens from proliferating advanced British textile production to other countries.
Samuel Slater is still revered in the United States as the “Father of the American Factory System.” In Britain, if he is remembered at all, he is known by the epithet of “Slater the Traitor.”
After all, Samuel Slater engaged in what might today be referred to as “industrial espionage.” Without Slater, the United States would likely not have risen to become the industrial challenger to British imperial might that it did in the 19th century. Even if America had evolved to challenge British power without Slater’s help, it is likely the process would have taken longer than it actually did.
Many British leaders at the time likely dismissed Slater’s actions as little more than a nuisance. The Americans had not achieved anything unique. They were merely imitating their far more innovative cousins in Britain.
As the works of Oded Shenkar have proved, however, if given enough time, annoying imitators can become dynamic innovators. The British learned this lesson the hard way. America today appears intent on learning a similar hard truth … this time from China.
By the mid-20th century, the latent industrial power of the United States had been unleashed as the European empires, and eventually the British-led world order, collapsed under their own weight. America had built out its own industrial base and was waiting in the geopolitical wings to replace British power – which, of course, it did.
Few today think of Britain as anything more than a middle power in the US-dominated world order. This came about only because of the careful industrial and manipulative trade practices of American statesmen throughout the 19th and first half of the 20th century employed against British power.
The People’s Republic of China, like the United States of yesteryear with the British Empire, enjoys a strong trading relationship with the dominant power of the day. China has also free-ridden on the security guarantees of the dominant power, the United States.
The Americans are exhausting themselves while China grows stronger. Like the US in the previous century, inevitably, China will displace the dominant power through simple attrition in the non-military realm.
Many Americans reading this might be shocked to learn that China is not just the land of sweatshops and cheap knockoffs – any more than the United States of previous centuries was only the home of chattel slavery and King Cotton. China, like America, is a dynamic nation of economic activity and technological progress.
While the Chinese do imitate their innovative American competitors, China does this not because the country is incapable of innovating on its own. It’s just easier to imitate effective ideas produced by America, lowering China’s research and development costs. Plus, China’s industrial capacity allows the country to produce more goods than America – just as America had done to Britain
Once China quickly acquires advanced technology, capabilities, and capital from the West, Chinese firms then spin off those imitations and begin innovating. This is why China is challenging the West in quantum computing technology, biotech, space technologies, nanotechnology, 5G, artificial intelligence, and an assortment of other advanced technologies that constitute the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Why reinvent the wheel when you can focus on making cheaper cars and better roads?
Since China opened itself up to the United States in the 1970s, American versions of Samuel Slater have flocked to China, taking with them the innovations, industries, and job offerings that would have gone to Americans had Washington never embraced Beijing.
America must simply make itself more attractive than China is to talent and capital. It must create a regulatory and tax system that is more competitive than China’s. Then Washington must seriously invest in federal R&D programs as well as dynamic infrastructure to support those programs.
As one chief executive of a Fortune 500 company told me in 2018, “If we don’t do business in China, our competitors will.”
Meanwhile, Americans must look at effective education as a national-security imperative. If we are living in a global, knowledge-based economy, then it stands to reason Americans will need greater knowledge to thrive. Therefore, cultivating human capital will be essential if America rather than China is to be the base of the next industrial revolution.
Besides, smart bombs are useless without smart people.
These are all things that the United States understood in centuries past. America bested the British Empire and replaced it as the world hegemon using these strategies. When the Soviet Union challenged America’s dominance, the US replicated the successful strategies it had used against Britain’s empire.
Self-reliance and individual innovativeness coupled with public- and private-sector cooperation catapulted the Americans ahead of their rivals. It’s why Samuel Slater fled to the nascent United States rather than staying in England.
America is losing the great competition for the 21st century because it has suffered historical amnesia. Its leaders, Democrats and Republicans alike, as well as its corporate tycoons and its people must recover the lost memory – before China cements its position as the world’s hegemon.
The greatest tragedy of all is that America has all of the tools it needs to succeed. All it needs to do is be more like it used to be in the past. To do that, competent and inspiring leadership is required. And that may prove to be the most destructive thing for America in the competition to win the 21st century.
Source: https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/china-beating-us-by-being-more-like-america/
Feb 18, 2021
Aug 4, 2020
