U.S. Real Estate Market Is Slowing Down, Based on Recent Data

By Brandon Cornett

8/03/2021

The U.S. real estate market appears to be slowing down. But how will that affect home buyers going forward?

Recent and numerous reports provide evidence that the U.S. housing market is finally starting to slow down a bit. This comes after a year-long period of frenzied home-buying activity and soaring prices.

But what does this mean for home buyers going forward? Will it get easier to buy a house later this year or in 2022? Here’s a summary of the latest housing market reports and what they might mean for buyers across the U.S.

It’s Official: The Real Estate Market Is Slowing Down

Over the past 12 months or so, the U.S. real estate market has accelerated and intensified like never before. Not even a global pandemic could slow the home-buying frenzy that erupted in cities nationwide. Suddenly, people had a renewed appreciation for homeownership.

On top of that, thousands of people were leaving crowded cities for more spacious suburbs and rural housing markets. These factors, combined with record-low mortgage rates, boosted the U.S. housing market through the second half of 2020 and into the first half of this year.

Fang (Winnie) Schreck | United Real Estate
Tel: 551-580-4856 | Email: F.WINNIE.S@GMAIL.COM

Which brings us up to the present.

Now, several recent reports show that the U.S. real estate market might finally be cooling down a bit. We’ve seen a decline in home sales, an increase in inventory, and other indicators that suggest the housing market is slowing.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Census Bureau published some updated data regarding home sale across the United States. According to that report, sales of new single-family homes dropped by 6.6% in June compared to May. Annually, sales of newly constructed houses were down by more than 19% compared to a year ago.

Similarly, a July 2021 report from the National Association of Realtors revealed a nearly 2% drop in pending sales for existing homes, from May to June of this year.

So what’s going on here? Why have sales declined in recent months? Why is the U.S. real estate market slowing down after so many months of overheated activity?

Buyers Are Getting Priced Out, and Backing Out

There are a couple of overlapping factors that could be cooling the real estate market in 2021.

First, we have the rapid and unprecedented rise of home prices. In most cities across the country, house prices have risen to all-time record highs over the past year. This trend has caused a sense of sticker shock among many buyers, while pricing others out of the market entirely.

There’s also an ongoing supply shortage that could be affecting home sales nationwide. This is especially true when it comes to newly constructed houses. Builders nationwide are currently grappling with labor shortages and high lumber prices, among other issues.

But it’s the pricing factor, more than anything else, that’s causing the real estate market to slow down in summer 2021.

Surveys show that home buyers nationwide are getting fed up, frustrated, and fatigued by the hyper-competitive nature of the housing market. In many U.S. cities, home prices have risen by double digits over the past year or so. Some of the hottest housing markets have seen annual price gains of nearly 30% — or more — within the past 12 months alone.

You don’t have to be an economist to understand how this could cause the real estate market to slow down in 2021.

Affordability issues have caused an increasing number of home buyers to back out of the market. Due to the rapid run-up in prices, fewer people can afford to buy a house today compared to a year ago. So we’re talking about a slow but steady reduction in the number of qualified and willing home buyers.

Inventory Has Risen in Many U.S. Cities

Inventory levels play a role here as well. And a big one.

For the past couple of years, most housing markets across the country have suffered from severe supply shortages. Plenty of home buyers in the market … not enough properties to go around. You’ve heard it before.

But that appears to be changing. According to a July 2021 report from the real estate data company Zillow, housing market inventory has risen nationwide over the past year.

“For-sale inventory saw meaningful recovery for the second month in a row, improving 3.1% over May,” their report stated.

Of course, real estate conditions can vary greatly from one city or region to the next. There are still some U.S. cities where housing market inventory continues to shrink. But they’re the exception rather than the rule. Across much of the United States, housing supply is starting to trend upward.

Inventory growth becomes even more apparent when you look at the number of newly listed homes in housing markets across the country. According to a recent report from Realtor.com, the number of newly listed properties nationwide rose by 10.9% from May to June. New listings were up by 5.5% year-over-year.

So there’s a lot going on here. Rapidly rising home prices continue to shrink the buyer pool. Inventory is starting to tick upward in many U.S. cities. And it is seems the U.S. real estate market might be slowing down at long last.

What Does All of This Mean for Home Buyers?

Most of this is good news for home buyers in the U.S.

If these trends continue going forward, buyers could have an easier time finding and purchasing a house later this year and into 2022. They might not have to compete as fiercely with other buyers. They might not have to waive their contract contingencies or make offers about the list price.

In other words, we might return to something resembling “normal.”

But we’re not there yet. While the real estate scene does appear to be slowing into the latter part of 2021, most U.S. cities are still experiencing seller’s market conditions. And those conditions could very well carry over into 2022. It will take some time for the supply and demand situation to truly balance out.

Source

Southern California home prices hit a new record. Is a slowdown on the horizon?

By Andrew Khouri

6/22/2021

"Ocean View" attached to the home's for sale sign grabs drivers' attention as they make their way along Bayside Drive in Corona del Mar, on April 26, 2021. — Rapidly rising home prices have many buyers worried that they are being priced out of the market. Above, a home for sale this spring in Corona del Mar. (Susan Hoffman)

Southern California home prices soared in May, hitting another all-time high, though some data are starting to point to a potential slowdown in demand.

The six-county region’s median sales price rose a whopping 24.7% from May 2020 to a record $667,000 last month, according to data released Tuesday by data firm DQNews.

Sales also surged from a year earlier.

The big leap in numbers from a year earlier is partly due to a once-in-a-lifetime comparison.

The data reflect closed sales, meaning the 2020 data covered mostly deals that opened escrow during March and April 2020 — the height of the coronavirus lockdowns. At the time, sales had plunged and price growth slowed.

As those lockdowns eased, the housing market roared back to life both locally and nationally, spurred by record low mortgage rates and a desire for more space during the pandemic. The number of investor sales is also on the rise, as deep-pocketed individuals and companies look to acquire single-family houses to rent out or renovate.

Median home prices in the region have risen by double digits for 10 consecutive months and new records are being set both regionally and locally.

In Los Angeles County, the median home price rose 25% to a record $775,000 in May, while sales climbed 117%.
In Orange County, the median home price rose 19.3% to a record $895,000, while sales climbed 113.4%.
In Riverside County, the median home price rose 22.5% to a record $502,250, while sales climbed 81.7%.
In San Bernardino County, the median home price rose 16.8% to $432,000, while sales climbed 61%.
In San Diego County, the median home price rose 22.9% to a record $725,000, while sales climbed 81.7%.
In Ventura County, the median home price rose 20.9% to a record $701,500, while sales climbed 128.7%.

It’s unclear how long such rapid increases will continue, and many buyers worry they are being priced out of the market.

Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist with CoreLogic, said she expects home-price appreciation to slow from today’s torrid levels, though she doesn’t see price declines on the horizon.

Some data are pointing in the direction of a potential slowdown. An index of national home-buyer demand from real estate brokerage Redfin has fallen 14% from a peak in April. The index factors in requests for home tours and other services the company provides.

The number of home sales entering escrow is also falling nationally and in L.A. County, but those rates are still above the comparable time period in 2019 and 2018, in addition to 2020, according to Redfin.

Taylor Marr, lead economist with Redfin, said the apparent slowdown is slight and might mean buyers will just have an easier time getting their offers accepted without having to waive contingencies, which allow buyers to back out of a deal without penalties if an appraisal doesn’t come through or an inspection turns up a problem.

“It appears that a healthier market may finally be on the horizon even if it doesn’t come with a discount,” Marr said.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Californians are headed to Texas. Why more people are moving to Lone Star State

Home prices are a big driver for tens of thousands of Californians to pack up and head to Texas, researchers say.

By Jeff Ehling

4/17/2021

More Californians are moving to Texas

The data proves Californians are leaving the Golden State and buying homes in the Lone Star State. See why and how many have moved here.

Californians are headed to Texas.

Researchers at Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research in Houston, Texas say home prices are a big driver.

It’s causing tens of thousands of Californians to seek out new places to live in the Lone Star State.

When Bill Fulton was recently asked by business leaders if Golden State residents were really coming to Texas in large numbers, he went to work to find the answer.

As the director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University, Fulton analyzed the numbers.

He found, on average, about 35,000 to 40,000 Texans move to California every year, but recently a noticeable number of people are doing just the opposite.

In 2018 and 2019, about 80,000 people a year made the move from California to Texas.

The Kinder Institute found as housing prices go up in California, there is a steady migration to Texas.

It has a real-world impact on housing prices in the Lone Star State and those who were born and raised there when they try to find an affordable place to live.

“The consequences it does have is the people who already live in Texas who maybe do not have a lot of home equity and are not used to those California home prices, they may have a more difficult time buying a house, at least the house they want to buy in the place they want to buy,” said Fulton

That means lower income families may have to move further away from the city center to find affordable housing, making their commutes longer and more expensive.

As for whether or not those moving Californians could turn Texas blue, researchers say there doesn’t seem to be enough migration to make that happen on its own.

Source: https://abc7news.com/californians-move-to-texas-why-are-more-people-moving-rice-university-kinder-institute-for-urban-research/10488205/

Why is EVERYONE Leaving CALIFORNIA?
Jun 9, 2020

Texas becoming increasingly popular for Californians | KVUE
Dec 3, 2020

Is a Housing Market Crash Possible in 2021?

By Mark Mathis

4/15/2021

With the real estate market experiencing surging prices, scant inventories and a backlog of new home construction, many consumers are wondering if what’s gone up must come back down—in other words, are we headed for another housing market crash? Let’s take a closer look.

Think Back to the Great Recession

The unforeseen housing market crash 15 years ago ignited a worldwide recession. Fueled by low interest rates, loose mortgage-lending standards and the nation’s unshakeable faith in homeownership, home values rose at record rates year-after-year. When the housing bubble burst, roughly nine million families lost their homes to foreclosure or short sale between 2006 and 2014. Housing values plunged 30% or more, homeowners lost a collective $7 trillion and it took nearly a decade for most markets to recover. Even today, several real estate markets have not fully recovered.

With the robust market activity we’ve seen lately, could there be a market crash in the near future? The short answer is “not likely.” Today’s market book cannot be sustained completely, but a crash as serious as the one from 15 years ago is unlikely because of a few important factors.

Factor No. 1: More Stringent Lending Standards

Loose mortgage lending practices ultimately brought down some of the nation’s largest banks and mortgage companies. The fallout forced Congress and federal regulators to make significant adjustments that have fundamentally changed how mortgage lending is regulated.

Since then, standards have been raised and the process of obtaining a mortgage is now more transparent. The “anyone can get one” loans of the past are illegal; now borrowers undergo stricter income, credit and asset checks. An entirely new regulatory agency, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, was created to enforce this new regulatory framework. Lenders who do not comply with these standards may face heavy penalties.

As a result, the housing finance marketplace is now more robust and safer than it was 15 years ago. Any dip in the housing market will be cushioned by these stricter regulations.

Factor No. 2: Pandemic Mortgage Forbearance

When the housing market crashed in 2007, the influx of foreclosures pumped housing supply into areas with falling prices and weak labor markets, while also preventing recently foreclosed borrowers from re-entering the market as buyers. According to the Federal Reserve, foreclosures during a time of high unemployment could depress prices, plunging homeowners across the country deeper into negative equity.

However, in the pandemic era, the effects of mass unemployment bear little resemblance to the Great Recession, thanks in large part to forbearance programs that have allowed homeowners to postpone their monthly mortgage payments without suffering penalties.

As of early March 2021, 2.6 million homeowners’ mortgages were in such forbearance plans. As the pandemic economy has slowly recovered, many homeowners have resumed their employment, and thus their home payments. According to CoreLogic, by the end of 2020, overall mortgage delinquencies declined 5.8% due to the forbearance program. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due declined to 0.5%, lower than 0.6% in December 2019.

Housing Market Crash

It’s worth noting that serious delinquencies—defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure—increased when owners who owed large amounts left forbearance. By year end 2020, the serious delinquency rate was 3.9%, up from 1.2% in December 2019.

Factor No. 3: Most Homeowner’s Cushion—Equity

Equity is the difference between the current market value of your home and the amount you owe on it. In other words, it’s the portion of your home’s value that you actually own. Equity can be an incentive to stay in your home longer; if prices rise—something we’ve seen almost universally across the country in recent months—your equity increases, too.

Why does this matter? Simply put, higher levels of equity cushion homeowners from default when home values fall.

Over the past decade, American homeowners have enjoyed housing stability and growth, building up large home equity reserves. In the third quarter of 2020, the average family with a mortgage had $194,000 in home equity, and the average homeowner gained approximately $26,300 in equity over the course of the year. In contrast, 2009 saw nearly a quarter of the nation’s mortgaged homes valued for less than the amount their owners actually owed on those mortgages.

Factor No. 4: Price Growth Will Slow Down, but Continue

The sales boom followed the outbreak of the COVID-19 and surprised many real estate economists. Like most other business sectors, real estate was expected (if not required in many locations) to lock down. But by mid-April, sales were soaring as buyers, many of them millennials, took advantage of record-low mortgage interest rates. Through the remainder of 2020, rates remained below 3%, and existing home sales reached their highest level in 14 years.

A Moving Target

While no one can say for sure what will happen with the real estate sector, most experts are confident that we’ll experience a market dip, but certainly not a crash. In the meantime, there’s plenty of work available for motivated real estate professionals. Find out how Homes.c om can help you connect with the current market of active buyers and sellers here!

Source: https://rismedia.com/2021/03/25/housing-market-crash-possible-2021/

Flat-Fee MLS Listing Service in Northern VA

**Neighborhood Specialist (McLean, Falls Church, Vienna)** |
**Helping For Sale by Owner (FSBO) & For Rent by Owner (FRBO)**

DIY Landlord – Renting out Properties Safer and Quicker!

By David Chen

4/15/2021

Q. We purchased our first home some years ago, and are about to move to another home. We are considering to keep our first home as an income property. We heard of the free ads on CRAIGSLIST and zillow.com, but some landlord friends told us it could be a challenge to find qualified tenants through CRAIGSLIST and zillow.com. Is there any way to rent our property out quicker and safer with minimum cost? We are the kind of persons who would like to try things ourselves, and have some spare time.

A. You may have already done the initial research and have figured out the range of monthly rent of your property.

If the monthly rent is low such as $1600.00 or below, you may want to do it through CRAIGSLIST, https://postlets.com/, zillow.com, or similar web sites. The renters interested in the low-priced rentals may not go to the Realtors community for assistance.

If the monthly rent is $1600.00 or above, you may want to consider listing your rental on brightmls.com for the Realtors community to market it for you.

Bright MLS is made up of nine forward thinking MLSs (43 Associations) in the Mid-Atlantic region who put aside their differences and came together with a shared vision to help solve MLS market overlap and empower everyone to get more out of the MLS. Bright will serve parts of 6 states plus Washington, D.C. encompassing 85,000 real estate professionals who serve over 20 million consumers and facilitate approximately 250,000 transactions a year that are valued at more than $70 billion.

Dozens of public real estate websites (such as: zillow.com, redfin.com, brightmlshomes.com, etc.) pull data from brightmls.com through syndication. In a few hours, your listing will show up on dozens of websites and will get the maximum exposure. It is a lot quicker and safer finding qualified tenants than doing it through CRAIGSLIST and zillow.com. You may talk with a Realtor for assistance. Please be aware some Realtors take rental jobs, some don’t.

Over the years I have helped some landlords in the community renting their properties out with very low cost. A popular arrangement is to help the landlords ‘DIY’, which has been working well for those experienced landlords.

The good side of ‘DIY’ is that the landlords can ‘screen’ the potential tenants from the very beginning, have 100% control of the whole process, and enjoy the feeling of “on top of things”.

If you prefer minimum service, I can help you ‘DIY’:

1. I provide CMA, list your rental on brightmls.com, put a realtor’s lockbox at the front door if needed, provide the access log (if needed), support you through the whole process.

I charge a flat fee for the minimum service.

2. If you would like me to prepare the lease or review the lease, there is another reasonable flat fee. This service is optional.

3. You answer phone calls, work with the tenant (if the tenant doesn’t have an agent) or the tenant’s agent, run credit check, verify employment, check references, etc.. You pay the tenant’s agent (if there is one) directly on the move-in date – usually 25% of first-month rent.

If you need full-service, the commission is first-month rent – which includes the commission to be paid to the tenant’s agent.

If you need any customized service (between minimum service and full-service), we can work out an agreement.

Some information:

CMA stands for Comparable (some called Competitive) Market Analysis, that will help you determine the market value of your property for sale or for rent.

I use Sentry-key lockbox. Any Realtor with membership of NVAR (Northern Virginia Association of Realtors) or any other VA Realtors association can access and show the property.

The access log tells when the agents enter the property and their contact info. which can help you follow up with the agents.

If you like the DIY experience, I would recommend you to use the minimum service.

Please feel free to reach me if you need any assistance.
—
David Chen
Realtor (Licensed in VA) | Neighborhood Specialist (McLean, Falls Church, Vienna)
Libra Realty, LLC
dchenj@gmail.com
703-395-5406

WeChat ID: dchenj2015

Last update: 4/15/2021

Websites that will show your flat fee mls listings

4/15/2021

Almost all real estate websites that offer the ability to search brokerage listings use a data feed from the MLS called Internet Data Exchange (IDX) to pull in listing data. Depending on the number of sites tapping into your MLS, your listing could appear on hundreds of websites. We do not control the content of any of the websites listed below. updated periodically & subject to change at any time Here are some examples of national websites by area that pull listings from the MLS:

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