Americans are pissed about the housing market — they haven’t hated it this much in 4 decades

Americans are pissed about the housing market — they haven’t hated it this much in 4 decades

By Ben Winck

9/21/2021

Only 29% of Americans say it’s a good time to buy a home in September, according to the University of Michigan.
That’s the smallest share since 1982, and signals soaring prices are slamming peoples’ buying plans.
Beyond homebuying attitudes, Americans are pessimistic on the US recovery as Delta cases surge.

Last year, everyone was excited to buy a house. This fall, they’re pissed.

Just 29% of Americans said in September that it was a good time to buy a home, according to data from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. That’s the smallest share since 1982 and close to record lows. The majority was excited about homebuying just months ago: 62% said it was a good time at the start of the year and 65% said so in March 2020, when the pandemic first slammed the US.

Last year’s euphoria has curdled into a nationwide home shortage, largely thanks to widespread working from home and record low mortgage rates. The mismatch between supply and demand has driven home values to suffocating highs, particularly for those looking to buy their first house. It’s been especially tough for millennials, who are entering peak homebuying years and have few good options. For instance, prices rose 18.6% year-over-year in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic US Home Price Index, marking a third straight month of record home inflation.

A rebound in home construction could cool the price surge, but contractors aren’t rising to the occasion. Housing starts have hovered near pre-pandemic levels despite inventories still at historic lows. Economists expect Tuesday data to show new home starts climbing slightly in August to an annualized rate of 1.56 million homes. Yet that still pales in comparison to the annualized pace of 2 million homes needed to counter the shortage, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Economists at Fannie Mae lowered their forecast for 2022 home sales on Monday to -1.8% from -1.6%, thanks to soaring prices and poor new construction outlooks. For a healthier market to emerge, the country needs many more homes, they said.

“We believe home purchase demand is cooling somewhat as the housing market normalizes,” the economists said. “Still, we continue to see the primary impediment to sales being a lack of homes for sale.”

Not just homes, but cars and goods, too

Americans aren’t just balking at home prices. Their outlook toward the entire economy is abysmal.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 71 from 70.3 in an early September reading, bringing it just above decade-lows. And while the university’s measure of future economic expectations improved, Americans’ assessments of the current situation slid to the worst since April 2020.

Within the broad slump is a dismal outlook toward spending. Attitudes for buying durable goods — think appliances, electronics, and furniture — reached the most negative level since 1980, according to the university. Feelings toward buying vehicles also closed in on record lows.

Taken together, the gloomy attitudes show the American dream in tatters. Homes aren’t affordable. Inflation continues to outpace wage growth, leaving Americans with eroded buying power after living through a historic pandemic. Settling down and building a life is costlier than ever, especially for millennials looking to replicate the cycle Gen X enjoyed before them.

Instead of cheering on the recovery, Americans are fearing another 2020-style COVID recession. Economic data has backed up their soured outlooks, and economists should anticipate slower growth in home sales and overall spending through the rest of the year, Richard Curtin, chief economist at the university’s Surveys of Consumers, said.

To be sure, it’s unlikely another COVID recession will emerge. Slower growth is still growth, and banks expect the economy to continue healing through the Delta wave. But as more millennials look to buy homes, the lack of affordable options stands to leave an entire generation struggling to climb the socioeconomic ladder.

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为解住严重宅荒美联邦政府要盖10万户平价宅

来源：经济日报

9/02/2021

　　在美国房价持续高涨之际，白宫官员表示，美国政府为纾解严重住宅荒，将采取一系列立即可实施的步骤，以现有经费和权力，在未来三年兴建、销售10万户平价住宅。

　　路透引述官员说法报导，这套计划最快1日宣布，将聚焦于扩大对个人和非营利机构销售房屋，同时对大型投资人买房设限。第2季全美各地每售出六户住宅，就有一户被投资大户买走。

　　美国房屋需求在新冠肺炎疫情爆发初期激增，反映民众为居家办公和学习购置更宽敞的房子。但待售屋不足和供应链瓶颈把房价推得更高，租金行情跟着水涨船高，加重家庭财务负担。白宫官员说，全美平价住宅估计短缺多达400万户。

　　白宫官员表示，美国总统拜登(专题)已提议，斥资逾3,000亿美元增建200万户平价住宅，这项措施是3.5兆美元基础建设投资案的一部分，正在国会审议中。但拜登希望推动立即可行步骤。

　　这套新计划将涵盖乡村与都会地区的住宅建案，重点摆在平价房市，希望能协助房屋自有率偏低的有色人种族群。

　　此计划将由美国住宅与都市发展部（HUB）部长法吉（Marcia Fudge）宣布，具体行动由该部、财政部及房贷机构房利美（Fannie Mae）与房地美（Freddie Mae）等联邦监管机构共同规划。“两房”合计占全美11兆美元房贷市场的一半。其中，一大关键步骤是重启曾由财政部与HUB合办但在2019年结束的“风险分摊计划”，该计划让各州住宅金融机构能扩大提供低利贷款，促进兴建平价住宅。

　　此计划也将提高组合屋及二至四户多户型不动产的供应量，希望透过房地美扩大融资达成目标。同时也将采取行动，限制对大型投资人销售一些由联邦住宅管理局（FHA）提供担保的不动产。

　　拜登政府另打算与各州和地方政府合作运用现有联邦资金，并协助减少排他性分区（exclusionary zoning）等阻挠提高住宅供应量的做法。

Source

Fang (Winnie) Schreck | United Real Estate
Tel: 551-580-4856 | Email: F.WINNIE.S@GMAIL.COM

White House tackles housing shortage with plan for 100,000 affordable homes

By Andrea Shalal

9/02/2021

A member of the Secret Service walks along security fence installed around the White House days after supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump stormed the Capitol in Washington, U.S., January 11, 2021. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

WASHINGTON, Aug 31 (Reuters) – The Biden administration is taking steps to address a severe housing shortage in the United States by creating and selling 100,000 affordable homes over the next three years using existing funds, the White House said on Wednesday.

The moves will focus on boosting home sales to individuals and non-profit organizations, while limiting sales to large investors, who scooped up one in six homes sold in the second quarter, according to a White House statement.

Demand for housing soared early in the pandemic as Americans sought more spacious accommodations for home offices and home schooling, but a shortage of homes for sale and supply chain bottlenecks have driven housing prices sharply higher.

Rental prices, which typically follow the lead of house prices, are also a big concern, given that even before the pandemic 11 million families – or nearly a quarter of all renters – were already spending more than half their income on rent, according to the White House.

The United States has an estimated shortage of as many as 4 million affordable housing units, White House officials say.

U.S. President Joe Biden has proposed spending over $300 billion to add 2 million more affordable housing units as part of a $3.5 trillion investment package being considered by Congress, but wanted to push forward with immediate steps that could be taken now, the White House said.

The plans will cover rural and urban housing projects, with a focus on aiding communities of color, where home ownership rates have lagged historically.

U.S. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Marcia Fudge will announce the measures after touring a new five-story affordable housing complex in Philadelphia on Wednesday.

Fudge called the initiatives “significant downpayment” on Biden’s commitment to boost the supply of affordable rental housing, expanding access to capital for state Housing Finance Agencies, empowering local communities to build more affordable housing and promoting equitable housing policies.

Specific actions are planned by Fudge’s department, the U.S. Treasury and agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which will increase financing opportunities to enable more Americans to purchase homes, the White House said.

One key step is the revival of a joint Treasury-HUD “Risk Sharing Program” that ended in 2019 and that will enable state housing financing agencies to provide more low-cost capital for affordable housing development.

**Jessie Huang, Mortgage Loan Professional, Meridian Bank Mortgage**

The plans will also boost the supply of manufactured housing and 2-4 unit properties by expanding financing through Freddie Mac, while taking steps to limit the sale of some U.S. Federal Housing Administration-insured properties to large investors.

Investor purchases, which have been as high as one in every four homes in some communities, have driven up prices for lower-cost houses and triggered fierce competition for starter homes, the White House said.

The administration also plans to work with state and local governments to leverage existing federal funds, and help reduce exclusionary zoning and other practices that have discouraged efforts to boost the supply of housing, the official said.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency “will begin to study the interaction between exclusionary zoning and our regulated entities,” said acting Director Sandra L. Thompson.

Source

如何计算一个投资房产的租金回报率？

By Willy Rong

3/07/2021

一直以来都有人问我，如何计算一个投资房产的租金回报率？我答过，但总是似是而非。

今天就这个问题给出我的计算公式Return Of Investment (ROI)，仅供大家参考。

这个问题要从两方面讨论，看你是全额现金买房？还是贷款80% 买房？

（全额现金买投资房产）租金回报率 = （12月的租金 – 一年的各种花费）/ 买房价
（贷款80%买投资房产）租金回报率 = （12月的租金 – 一年的各种花费和贷款）/ (
20%首付+ Closing Cost )

我们还是以一个$38万美元买房实例来计算，比较直观：

房子开支预算:

HOA $38/月；保险 $120/月；税 $356/月；维修 $100/月。
共计 $614。

贷款 80%，约每月还贷$1500；

租金每月$2350；去掉开支 $614；每月净收入 $1736；
一年的总收入 $20832。

问：一个$38万美元的房产，每年的回报率？

（全额现金买投资房产）租金回报率 = （12月的租金 – 一年的各种花费）/ 买房价
$38万美元房子的租金回报率 = 一年的总收入 $20832 / 买房价$380,000 = $0.0548
全额现金$38万美元房子的租金回报率一年约为：5.5%；

（贷款80%买投资房产）租金回报率 = (12月的租金 – 一年的各种花费和贷款 ) / (
20%买房首付 + Closing Cost)
$38万美元贷款80%房子的租金回报率 = (一年的总收入$20832 – $18000) / (首付 $
76000 + $5000 Closing Cost ) = $0.0349
$38万美元贷款80%买投资房产的租金回报率一年约为：3.5%.

这个$38万美元的房子在最好学区，房子升值潜力大！

考虑到加上房子产权equity 上涨的因素，一年在6%-8%。所以要加上一个Equity 增值
率，换句话说，是用$81000 买了一个$38万美元的房产，是用杠杆买的房子。

这里有2个概念：一个是租金回报率；一个是Equity 回报率；

利用杠杆买房，就要让银行在这个房子上也赚一些钱，所以贷款租金回报率3.5%.要低
于全额现金租金回报率5.5%，这个逻辑是对的，那个2% 回报率的差让银行赚去了。

什么是智慧？智慧就是解决问题的能力！

能够把一个复杂问题简单化，用直白的方式讲清楚，这也是智慧。

现在亚特兰大地区（佐治亚），一个房子的租金回报率大概在3% ~ 6%左右，真心话，
投资房净租金回报率6%是一个不错的回报。

你若嫌上面二手房一年的租金回报率还低，你可以全现金买126包租5年的项目，一年的
租金回报率为净6%。

下面是在网上找到的租金回报率计算器，大家可以去练习：

租金回报率
https://www.calkoo.com/zh/zujin-huibao-lu