Most industry pros expect mortgage rates to rise modestly through December 2021 and into 2022.
Fannie Mae, NAR, and the Mortgage Bankers Association all agree 30-year fixed mortgage rates should average around 3.10% in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Others, like Freddie Mac and the National Association of Home Builders, think mortgage rates will continue to rise, hitting averages of 3.20% or higher by the end of December.
| Housing Authority | 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q4 2021) |
| Fannie Mae | 3.10% |
| National Association of Realtors | 3.10% |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 3.10% |
| Wells Fargo | 3.15% |
| Freddie Mac | 3.20% |
| National Assoc. of Home Builders | 3.25% |
| Average Prediction | 3.15% |
Will mortgage rates go down in December?
Right now, mortgage rates are in constant flux; a little up one day, a little down the next. And It seems likely those mortgage rate trends will continue into December.
Still, most housing experts are expecting an overall upward trend through the end of 2021 and into 2022. And that’s because the forces pushing mortgage rates higher aren’t going away:
- Inflation — Higher inflation typically leads to higher rates. And the annual U.S. inflation rate was at a 30-year high in October (the latest reading)
- Economic recovery — Retail sales increased by a wider margin than expected in October. And unemployment claims fell to their lowest level since March 2020. Both are strong indicators of an improving economy, which should lead to increased rates
- Fed policy changes — As the Federal Reserve continues to pull back on its Covid-era stimulus, mortgage rates should continue to rise
But there are other forces working to pull rates down, which is why we’ve seen spikes and drops over the past few weeks.
As has been the case since 2020, Covid trends are one of the biggest indicators for mortgage rates right now.
If we see widespread Covid surges throughout the winter, U.S. and international economies could face stronger headwinds. And that could mean lower mortgage rates.
But, provided we stay on an overall path to recovery, rates should rise in the long term.
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