半个月狂飙27倍！美国证监会复盘散户大战华尔街
文章来源: 证券时报
10/23/2021
今年年初，美股那场轰轰烈烈的”散户大战华尔街”事件想必让不少股民记忆犹新，著名的散户抱团股游戏驿站(GME)也因此一战成名。
近日，美国证监会（SEC）发布了一份关于 2021 年初股票和期权市场结构状况的报告，用长达44页的篇幅详述了美国的证券市场机制和监管机制，并深度复盘了游戏驿站在年初的交易情况。
报告指出，游戏驿站（GME）的暴涨背后由许多因素共同推动，包括股票大涨、大量交易额、空头量大、在社交网站的高人气、主流媒体的报道等等。
SEC报告复盘游戏驿站年初暴涨
10月18日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）发布了一份关于 2021 年初股票和期权市场结构状况的报告，其中重点介绍了著名的散户抱团股游戏驿站在今年1月的交易活动。
报告指出，2020年美国无论是股票还是期权市场，个人投资者都大幅增长。在这个背景下，一批以游戏驿站（GME）为代表的meme股在资本市场上崭露头角。
meme是指网络流行的事物，可以译为“表情包”或者“梗”，而“meme股”则指那些深受网民影响的股票。在网民常去的美版“虎扑”Reddit论坛上，许多股民聚集在“WallStreetBets（华尔街赌徒）”板块中，有“民间股神”发帖讨论股票，接着许多股民就“一哄而上”加入股票买卖的战团。
SEC这份报告显示，在2021年1月，有100多只股票都经历了暴涨，尤其是许多大众耳熟能详的公司，包括美国院线巨头AMC，知名手机品牌黑莓、诺基亚等等。其中许多股票就是在Reddit等社交网站上人气很高的meme股。
作为一个现象级的meme股代表，SEC报告显示，游戏驿站的股价从今年1月8日的日内低点到1月28日的高点，增长了大约2700%。其后，截止2月第一个月又下跌了超过86%。与此同时，截止1月27日，每日交易游戏驿站的个人投资者账户数量从1月初的1万增长到近90万。
游戏驿站（GME）2021年1月交易账户数
回顾游戏驿站的股价表现，游戏驿站GME在2020年就高度活跃。报告显示，2020年初，GME估计还只有6美元，到了2020年4月份则跌到了3美元，而到了2020年底GME估计已经达到约20美元。在Reddit社区上，游戏驿站在2019年就开始得到了一些网友的关注，彼时就出现了一些关于“轧空”的讨论。
到了2021年，游戏驿站的股价、交易活跃度、社交网络热度都开始加速上升。2021年1月11日，媒体报道称电子商务公司Chewy(CHWY.US)的联合创始人和前首席执行官Ryan Cohen将被任命为游戏驿站的董事，当日游戏驿站的股价最高上涨了约17%。自1月13日起，游戏驿站的股价和成交量开始显著增长，1月22日游戏驿站的股价在3小时内从43美元增长到72美元，大涨71%。
到了1月27日，游戏驿站收于347.51美元，几乎相比1月11日收盘价增长1600%。其后一个交易日，游戏驿站的股价又跳涨至483美元。
游戏驿站（GME）2021年1月收盘价走势图
游戏驿站的成交量也呈现爆增趋势。从1月13日至1月29日，平均每天有1亿股游戏驿站股票被交易，相比2020年全年平均日成交量增长1400%。在2021年1月22日那天，游戏驿站成交量达到了当月的最高峰——1.97亿股。
此外，1月的美国散户热情高涨，纷纷在互联网经纪商上开户。互联网经纪商往往以手机app作为交易平台，因为操作便捷、佣金低廉而深受散户青睐。在美国市场上流行的互联网经纪商中，Robinhood在今年1月获得了300万次的下载，微牛（Webull）则获得80万次的下载，数百万的全球股民奔赴美股市场加入战局。
史诗级“散户抱团股”是怎么被炒高的？
尽管游戏驿站以“散户抱团股”闻名，但SEC报告指出，除了散户，不少机构投资者也参与到这次游戏驿站的交易之中，包括一些知名对冲基金。报告认为，一些基金因为做空游戏驿站以及其他meme stock产生了亏损，但另一些基金做多游戏驿站赚取了巨大利润。
值得一提的是，该报告指出，游戏驿站在当时有着惊人的卖空比例（被卖空的股票数量与流通股的比率）。甚至在2020年12月31日，游戏驿站的卖空比就超过了100%，达到109.26%。SEC报告称，如果有人从卖空者手里买到了股票，并且有将股票借出，看上去该股票被卖空了两次，也就导致卖空比超过了100%。在2021年1月份，游戏驿站是唯一一只卖空数量超过其流通股的股票。
游戏驿站卖空比
在诸多分析中，“轧空”效应(short squeeze)成为关注的焦点。“轧空”也被称为“逼空”，报告显示，确实有一部分做多力量来自于“轧空”效应，面对股价快速上涨，空军平掉空头头寸，也会推动股价上升，从而引发新一轮的平仓需求。
那么，“轧空”这一行为在多大程度上对游戏驿站的股票产生了影响？
对此，SEC报告明确表示：“不是空头的平仓，而是投资者的乐观情绪在支持着Gamestop长达数周的股价抬升。”也就是说，正是全球各地赶来“参战”的股民把股价炒作到了疯狂的地步。
SEC的工作人员观察发现，在游戏驿站股价大涨的早期阶段即今年1月22日至27日，游戏驿站的股价上升，同时该股票的卖空比下降，不少卖空者在股价上涨期间平仓，从而又再次推动股价上升。同时，他们发现，一些一开始做空游戏驿站的账户，在1月22日以后的一段时间内开始大量买入该股票。
但报告也同时指出，这些平仓力量只占到了买入量的一小部分，在卖空者平掉空头后游戏驿站的股价仍在上涨。报告指出，无法确定游戏驿站巨大的买入量背后的潜在动机，也许是出于保持“轧空”状态从而从中获利，或是相信公司的基本面。总之，是积极看涨的力量主导了股票的上涨。
同时报告还否认了“伽玛逼空”（gamma squeeze）的可能性，伽玛逼空是指当做市商购买股票以对冲与卖出该股票的看涨期权的风险时，会出现的情况，从而对标的的股价产生进一步上涨的压力。
此外，异常高的卖空数量也引发了市场对于是否存在“裸卖空”的担忧。不过，SEC工作人员认为，没有确凿的证据证明“裸卖空”的存在，并且游戏驿站在个人清算层面也没有出现持续无法交付的情况。
报告还提到，游戏驿站股价的大幅波动，也影响了一些持有游戏驿站的ETF，其中最出名的是XRT，一个跟踪零售企业的ETF。XRT在媒体和Reddit上获得了广泛关注，同时做空XRT也成为一种间接的做空游戏驿站的手段。SEC工作人员观察到，在1月27日XRT净赎回大幅飙升，达到600万股，与做空活动相一致，并且这种赎回活动几乎完全由ETF做市公司产生。
另一个重要的方面在于，部分经纪交易商限制了投资者的部分交易行为，这对市场产生了巨大影响。
这份SEC报告指出，当游戏驿站及一些meme stock暴涨或大跌时，一些个人投资者客户基数较大的经纪交易商限制了客户对这些股票的部分交易行为。
该报告披露了一些细节。比如，SEC工作人员观察到，在今年1月26日，一家经纪交易商开始增加了对于游戏驿站的初始和维持保证金的要求。保证其一开始要求要80%，第二天提升到了100%。同时，这家经纪交易商还将游戏驿站期权的交易限额从每人5000份合约降到了3000份合约，第二天降低到300份合约，最后将到100份合约。1月28日，这家经纪交易商限制了所有的客户购买包括游戏驿站、AMC、BlackBerry、Nokia、EXPR等在内的8只股票。
报告指出，尽管游戏驿站最为出名，但是实际上在2021年1月还有许多股票的波动比游戏驿站还大。比如说，从单日的最高价格变动来看，仅1月27日一天，就有4只股票的单日价格变动幅度惊人，比如KOSS达到480%，AMC达到301.2%，NAKD达到252.3%，EXPR达到214.1%。统计显示，自2020年以来，美股有134只股票起码有一天的股价涨幅高于游戏驿站的单日最高涨幅。
后续美国证监会监管将关注四大方面
报告认为，2021年1月Meme股的极端波动测试了美国证券市场的容量和弹性，同时这也凸显出美国证券市场在21世纪的重要特征，即广泛参与——有许多不同类型的投资者，出于许多不同的原因买卖股票。但当股价快速变化，券商突然停牌时，投资者可能会蒙受损失。
报告同时指出，在这些热门股背后是真实的公司，那些购买游戏驿站的投资者通过证券系统成为了一家公司的共同所有者，有的人可能不看好游戏驿站和其他热门股的前景，但这些分歧应该导致价格发现而非价格中断。
美国证监会主席Gary Gensler表示：“1月的事件让我们有机会考虑如何进一步努力使股市尽可能公平、有序和高效。”
在这份44页报告的最后，SEC工作人员表示，这个事件提供了一个机会来反思我们的市场结构和监管框架，从而更好地保护投资者，维护公平、有序、有效的市场。未来将关注四个方面：
一是市场中可能导致券商限制交易的因素。在GME事件发生时，很多清算经纪商都收到了清算所日内追加保证金的通知。因此，一些券商决定对一些个股进行交易限制。这一事件突出了清算在股票交易风险管理中不可或缺的作用，但紧急追加保证金可能对那些资本薄弱的经纪交易商产生影响。SEC认为，或许缩短结算周期，能够减轻此类事件对清算所及其他参与者系统性风险。
二是关注股民的数字化参与及“订单流支付”（Payment for Order Flow，PFOF），PFOF即经纪公司将客户订单发送给不同的交易执行方所获得的报酬和利益。在订单流支付的安排下，诸如Robinhood等“零佣金”经纪商将散户交易者的订单信息发送给诸如Citadel Securities等高频交易公司，后者在支付价格不菲的经纪人佣金后，利用散户的买卖价格差信息获取利益。而订单流付款是Robinhood最大的收入来源之一。
SEC指出，应该考虑到，一些互联网券商“游戏化”的行为，以及类似庆祝动画的反馈机制，是否会导致交易者进行更多的交易。此外，订单流支付的方式，也会促使互联网券商想方设法，促使投资者进行更多交易。
三是关注在暗池（dark pool）中交易及通过批发商进行交易。SEC报告表示，GME 中的大部分零售订单流是由批发商购买并在交易所外执行的，在这些暗池中，投资者支付给经纪交易商的款项未必能得到妥善执行。根据SEC报告，在“Gamestop大战”中，这个暗池主要在以电子化交易商Robinhood、Webull，以及做市商Citadel、Virtu Americas之间形成。
此外，尽管这些批发商越来越多地处理个人投资者的订单流，但与交易所或经过SEC批准成立的“另类交易系统”（Alternative Trading System） 相比，他们在运营透明度和弹性方面受到的监管和要求都较少。
四是关注卖空及市场动态。尽管卖空行为以及社交网络上的“轧空”讨论引起了大量媒体的关注，但卖空和价格直接的动态机制实际上要复杂得多。改进对卖空的报告将使监管机构能够更好地跟踪这些动态。
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港媒爆华尔街大佬替美中政府传话 成「季辛吉翻版」
中央社
9/27/2021
香港媒体报导，美中官方交流因局势紧张升温而放缓之际，一名华尔街大佬抢先拜登气候特使柯瑞（John Kerry）在北京密会中共高层，堪比美国前国务卿季辛吉（Henry Kissinger）1971年秘密访华之旅。
香港「南华早报」今天引述一名熟悉会晤细节的消息人士报导，高盛（Goldman Sachs）前总裁、现任巴瑞克黄金公司（Barrick Gold Corp）运行董事长索顿（John Thornton）8月底在北京会见中国国务院副总理韩正，双方主要讨论议题包括气候变迁、新疆及恢复美中双边谈判的条件等。
索顿也是中美金融圆桌会议（China-US Financial Roundtable）共同主席。他在这趟为期6周的访中行程当中，担任美中交流的非官方管道。他先在上海停留3周，8月底再前往北京会晤中共高层，此后又前往新疆访问一周。
报导指出，COVID-19（2019冠状病毒疾病）疫情爆发后，多数外国人都被拒于中国门外，索顿却获得了前所未有的入境权利。他是这段期间极少数能在北京与中国官员会面的外国人士之一，他也因此在美中高层领导人之间传递消息和政策立场。
匿名消息人士形容：「索顿此行的性质与季辛吉的秘密访华之旅类似。」
这名人士表示：「韩正告诉索顿，中国并未寻求挑战或取代美国。中美应恢复合作，但须以相互尊重为前提，意指美国应将中国视为一个地位平等的伙伴。」
报导还指出，索顿赴中前，曾与一位深入参与美中关系事务的白宫官员讨论此行。这名官员至少2度要求索顿勿访问新疆，因为担心此举可能被解读为美国认可中国在新疆实施镇压政策。
然而，索顿的新疆之行显然受到韩正欢迎。知情人士透露：「韩正告诉索顿，他应该把在新疆的所见所闻告诉美国国会，且美国应反省自己的双重标准：美方一方面将911事件后的战争视为反恐行动，另一方面却批评中国的反恐行动是在侵犯人权。」
在气候问题上，索顿将拜登（Joe Biden）政府会希望中国怎么做告诉韩正，其中包括削减甲烷排放量。
韩正则反过来质疑美方的气候承诺，并举例美国前总统川普（Donald Trump）的政府退出巴黎气候协定（Paris Agreement）。但韩正也说，不论美国政策如何变化，中国都将持续尽自己的一份力量。
韩正还告诉索顿，中国很快就会宣布计划停止补贴海外燃煤电厂，并逐步关闭境内现有燃煤电厂。这些是拜登政府在气候谈判上提出的2大诉求。
索顿则表示，他理解中国不会屈从美方要求、将原定2030年为碳排放量最高峰的期限提前。但他建议中国将英文表述从by 2030改为before 2030，以安抚华府，同时也不必承诺特定期限。
美商务部长打算加强与中国的商业联系
9/25/2021
美国商务部长雷蒙多（Gina Raimondo）称，她将寻求改善美国与中国的商业联系；在中美两国在国家安全和人权问题上紧张关系日益加剧之际，她认为两国可以互利互惠。
雷蒙多在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，她计划率领美国首席执行官代表团前往海外，包括中国，寻找商机并讨论长期存在的贸易问题，不过目前还没有任何安排。
她说：“我工作的很大一部分是维护美国的企业。”
雷蒙多称，中国的经济政策以低于市场的价格补贴出口产品，对窃取知识产权的做法视而不见，使美国公司处于不利地位。她说，尽管如此，鉴于中国市场的规模，美国必须与中国展开贸易。
“这只是一个经济事实”，雷蒙多说。“我实际上认为，紧密的商业往来将有助于缓解任何潜在的紧张关系。”
美众议院拟立法禁中企购买美国农地
来自 / 联合早报
8/01/2021
华盛顿州共和党籍众议员纽豪斯是禁止中企购买美国农业用地条款的发起人。他说，禁止中国人购买农田以及获得农业补助，是“确保美国食品供应链安全和独立的一个步骤”。
（华盛顿讯）根据美国农业部的数据，过去10年，中国企业通过对美国农场和大型农业企业的收购，扩大了他们在美国农业中的存在。美国众议院拨款委员会日前在审议对农业等相关机构的拨款法案草案时，特别纳入了禁止由中国政府部分或全部控制的公司购买美国农业用地的条款。此外，已经拥有美国农业用地的中企将没有资格申请农业补助。该法案仍有待国会参众两院表决通过。
《美国之音》报道，仅在2013年，中国双汇集团收购美国猪肉加工巨头史密斯菲尔德（Smithfield Foods）的并购案中，中国企业就购得14.6万英亩（约6万公顷）的美国耕地。到2020年初，中国业主在美国控制的农业用地约19.2万英亩，价值18.58亿美元（约25.3亿新元）。这些土地可用于耕作、放牧和林业。
尽管中国拥有的美国农业用地远低于其他国家，在美国全部8.97亿英亩农业用地中所占比率也微不足道，但中国对海外农业领域的投资增速迅猛，引起了美国国会议员的警惕。美国农业部2018年一份调查报告显示，自2009年以来，中国在海外的农业投资增长了10倍以上。
华盛顿州共和党籍众议员纽豪斯是禁止中企购买美国农业用地条款的发起人。他说，禁止中国人购买农田以及获得农业补助，是“确保美国食品供应链安全和独立的一个步骤”。
艾奥瓦州共和党籍参议员格拉斯利表示，农业和粮食生产涉及国家安全，“我们必须确保我们没有大量农田受外国利益集团控制”。
目前美国只有六个州立法禁止外国人拥有耕地。这六个州包括艾奥瓦、夏威夷、明尼苏达、密西西比、北达科他、俄克拉荷马。
长期呼吁禁止外国人购买美国耕地的农户利益倡导团体“家庭农场行动”（Family Farm Action）总裁、前密苏里州副州长马克斯韦尔说，外国人或外国实体往往以高于市场价值的价格购买农场，从而推高了土地价格，使得下一代美国农民难以购得土地。
不过，美国农业部经济学家盖尔指出，考虑到中国企业拥有的美国农业用地面积不大，而且主要集中在史密斯菲尔德和2017年中国化工集团收购农业科技企业先正达（Syngenta）这两笔交易上，因此他不认为中国目前在美国的农业存在构成立即的国家安全威胁。
他说：“大多数中国投资集中在收购农田或资源非常易得和便宜的地方，而在美国收购土地往往更昂贵和更复杂，所以大多数中国人的投资集中在美国以外的其他国家。”
美贸易代表办公室首席中国顾问辞职
7/31/2021
美国贸易代表办公室的首席中国顾问伍人英（Mark Wu）表示，由于家庭原因已经辞职。
《华尔街日报》报道，伍人英在接受采访时说，他已经在7月中旬离开了美国贸易代表办公室，将于8月回到哈佛大学法学院，在那里他将专注研究知识产权问题和中国贸易政策。
伍人英表示，“我们的计划一直是帮助贸易代表戴琪适应她的角色”，“团队已经就位，节奏也已经形成”。
伍人英说，家庭问题是他离开的另一个原因。他说，这与美国贸易代表办公室继续对中国政策进行审查无关。
据报道，美国贸易代表办公室正在对其对华政策进行全面审查，预计将于今年秋季完成。该政策的细节鲜少公开，这导致大型投资者和对华的出口商日益失望。
中国首次以《反外国制裁法》制裁美国人员与实体
文 / 杨丹旭
7/23/2021
美国副国务卿谢尔曼访华前夕，中国首次援引《反外国制裁法》，对美国前商务部长罗斯等七个美国人员与实体实施制裁。
中国外交部23日晚在其官网以发言人回答记者问形式做出该宣布。
除了罗斯，其他被制裁的人员和实体包括：美国国会美中经济与安全评估委员会主席卡罗琳·巴塞洛缪；国会—行政部门中国委员会前办公室主任乔纳森·斯迪沃斯；美国国际事务民主协会金度允、美国国际共和研究所在港授权代表亚当·金、人权观察中国部主任索菲·理查森，以及香港民主委员会。
这是中国首次依据《反外国制裁法》，对美国采取反制措施。中国全国人大常委会上月10日通过《反外国制裁法》，为反制外国对中国的单边制裁提供法律依据。
根据该法律，反制措施包括不予签发签证、不准入境、注销签证或驱逐出境等；查封、扣押、冻结在中国境内的动产、不动产和其他各类财产；禁止或限制中国境内组织、个人与其进行有关交易、合作等。
中国外交部发言人称：“对美国炮制所谓‘香港商业警告’，无端抹黑香港营商环境，非法制裁多名中国中央政府驻港机构官员，有关行径严重违反国际法和国际关系基本准则，严重干涉中国内政，中方对此坚决反对，予以强烈谴责。”
美国财政部本月16日宣布，对香港中联办七名副主任实施制裁，他们在美资产将被冻结，也被禁与美国实体交易。美国国务院、商务部和国土安全部同日也向企业发出公告，指随着北京加强对港控制，在港美企将面对信誉、监管、财务乃至法律风险。
中国做出的制裁宣布，也被视为给谢尔曼的下马威。按照计划，谢尔曼将于25日至26日到访天津。她将与中国外交部主管中美关系的副部长谢锋会谈，之后会见中国国务委员兼外长王毅。（联合早报北京特派员杨丹旭报道）
Biden’s China Doctrine?
By Raihan Ronodipuro
7/19/2021
The current issue of “The Economist,” published recently, features a cover story on Biden’s China Doctrine. According to the report, “Bidenism” has converted the rhetoric of the “Trumpism” era into a policy prescription of Sino-US clashes (particularly institutional confrontation), with only one winner.
Biden and his team think that China is not interested in coexisting with the US, and they anticipate an early domination. Because of this, the goal of US policy toward China is to undermine China’s objectives. The US can collaborate with China on topics of mutual interest, such as climate change, but on problems such as the economics, technology, diplomacy, military, and values, the US focuses opposing China’s aspirations by strengthening itself and expanding cooperation with allies.
The report calls Biden’s China Doctrine into doubt. Internally, although Biden wishes to utilize China to unify the two parties and push his own agenda, the Republican Party is clearly not foolish enough to readily embrace Biden’s proposals as long as Biden includes a “China” chapter on the bill’s cover.
Diplomatically, Biden not only misjudged the United States’ present global power, but also miscalculated the losses that American allies would suffer if they faced China. In reality, instead of promoting cohabitation, the US administration has turned the relationship between major powers into a “zero sum” game.
The article provides an illustration of how China is on the verge of dominating the economic sphere. Aside from becoming the world’s largest economy, the number of nations with China as their primary trade partner has nearly doubled that of countries with the United States as their primary trading partner.
When it comes to the Sino-US competition, Germany’s perspective is clearly influenced by economic reasons. Southeast Asian countries turn to the United States only for security, and they look to China for economic growth. As a result, if forced to choose between China and the United States, many countries will go with China.
Biden has continued to utilize China’s difficulties to push the domestic agenda, despite the US’s capacity to re-defend norms. His policy proposals include industrial strategies, government involvement, planning, and control. According to rumors, the Biden administration may employ further subsidies and oversight to ensure that jobs and manufacturing remain in the United States.
So, in effect, Biden’s policy proposals have followed a moderate kind of trade protectionism. If the Biden administration withdraws its friends from China, if the goal is to allow the US to leave more employment possibilities, the allies who have not benefitted will understandably wonder, “Why on earth should I join the US in doing this?”
The cover story of The Economist may be considered to have struck the high points of Bi’s China policy since taking office. The Biden administration appears to have clear stances and propositions on China policy, but both its logic and the actions of relevant officials send a strong signal that it serves only the internal affairs of the United States – as if the United States is unconcerned about the affairs of other countries.
Benefits and emotions For example, Southeast Asia was originally given significant weight in the United States’ Asia-Pacific policy, but when the ASEAN foreign ministers met at the end of May, Anthony Blinken, who had been invited, not only did not attend, but instead decided to travel from Ireland to Israel. Connected to join, however because to technical difficulties, other individuals waited on the scene for over an hour before connecting successfully. Despite the fact that it is only a technical problem, the impression provided to ASEAN nations is that the Biden administration does not value Southeast Asia.
A few weeks later, the same group of ASEAN foreign ministers traveled to Chongqing for the meeting. China not only laid out the red carpet for them, but Foreign Minister Wang Yi also had constructive face-to-face talks with them. When ASEAN nations compare their sentiments to those of China and the United States, they realize how frigid they are.
Aside from technical problems, Blinken opted to visit the Middle East rather than Southeast Asia, which rendered the Biden administration’s “return to Asia-Pacific” rhetoric unconvincing to many countries. The US Department of Defense relocated its lone aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific to facilitate military departure from Afghanistan, sending an incredible signal to US allies.
Similar events took place several times in the six months after Biden entered the stage. For example, when the Indonesian foreign minister visited New York last month for a UN meeting, he requested a foreign minister-level meeting with Blinken, but Blinken wasn’t sure if he couldn’t spare the time or didn’t want to see each other at all.
Other nations’ bewilderment, as well as the United States’ skepticism of the Biden administration, has inevitably been felt. Biden and his staff are now pushing for a solution. Blinken, for example, stated last Sunday that the Biden administration maintained the Trump administration’s policy of rejecting China’s South China Sea sovereignty claims, and that the US and the Philippines have signed a mutual defense treaty, and that any attacks on the Philippines will result in a response from the US.
Trying to win the approval of the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. However, studying Pompeo will not help the US diplomatic position. If Biden’s China policy proposal continues to follow the thinking and operations of the Trump era, it may face significant domestic and foreign problems.
US must outcompete China for a stable relationship: Daniel Russel
Beijing’s aggression comes from perception that America is declining, former official says
TSUYOSHI NAGASAWA, Nikkei staff writer
7/10/2021
WASHINGTON — The secret visit of U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to Beijing on July 9-11, 1971, kicked off an American policy of engagement with China. Fifty years later, with China on track to overtake the U.S. economy as early as 2028, bilateral relations are at a crossroad.
In an interview with Nikkei, Daniel Russel, former U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs during the Obama administration, said the nature of the relationship is changing, and it would be wrong to assume that Washington would return to the “good old days,” supporting China’s growth while making an effort to avoid friction and confrontation.
But Russel, now vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, also stressed that aiming for regime change in Beijing is unrealistic and unwise, and would be in line with the “catastrophic” failures of attempted regime changes in the Middle East.
Edited excerpts from the interview follow:
Q: Since Kissinger began an engagement policy with China in the 1970s, the U.S.-China relationship has been relatively stable. The U.S. has invited China into the international system. Looking back, how do you evaluate the pros and cons of this policy?
A: If we took a step back and looked broadly at the historical record, we see that the United States deliberately chose a policy of engaging China and supporting its development, first back in 1972 under President Richard Nixon, where this was part of the strategy for containment of the Soviet Union, but then again in the ’90s, when Bill Clinton was president, after the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union. There was a second policy of engaging China that led up to the entry of China into the WTO.
From the Clinton era on, America’s policy toward China was based on the view that a stable China, a prospering China, would serve the best interests of the United States, in part because a weak China, or an insecure China, would likely pose a lot of risks to U.S. interests and to our allies.
I’ve never heard a persuasive argument that it would have been better to do something different than engagement, at those junctures. The United States made a common-sense decision, to try to engage China and to shape its behavior, to integrate China and to give it a stake in the international system, that the United States had largely designed.
And, while people hoped for political liberalization, I don’t think that political liberalization was the reason that the U.S. government and other governments took this approach, because what was the alternative?
Who is going to argue that an effort to isolate China and to contain China, or to destabilize China would have been a better strategy? It would have been a recipe for disaster.
Today, there is a kind of new conventional wisdom that is based on the view that cooperation with China is impossible, that engagement with China is a failure.
If you look at the historical record, that’s just not defensible, that’s not true.
But that doesn’t mean that we can go back to the “good old days” where we tried to support China’s growth, where we made an effort to avoid friction and confrontation.
There are two reasons for this.
In the past, as long as there was a large disparity, a gap, in military power and economic power between the two countries, the relationship was reasonably stable. But China has become much more economically successful and much more militarily and technologically capable. China is now close to being a peer power to the United States, which it never was.
Secondly, in the Xi Jinping era — which now is about almost nine years — China’s leadership has become more assertive, more ideological, and more brazen, more overt, in challenging global norms and challenging U.S. leadership. We’ve seen bullying behavior intensify by China.
Q: What were negotiations with China like in the years of President Barack Obama?
A: We had two very different experiences with the Chinese. On the South China Sea, Obama had very direct, very blunt, discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping repeatedly, from 2013 and the Sunnylands meeting on, each time more forcefully warned Xi that China’s island building, its reclamation, its activities, were creating risk, and that the United States had a responsibility to the defense of the Philippines and more broadly had a strong commitment to freedom of navigation, and could not accept efforts by China to claim the so-called nine-dashed line, or to develop outposts in international waters, and that this was damaging the U.S.-China relationship.
Finally, in the meeting in 2015, Xi made an assurance, and he made a public assurance as well, that China would not militarize the outposts that it built.
But, in that case, China did not ultimately honor that commitment, and the problematic behavior continued. And it had a very damaging effect on U.S. relations with China.
The issue of cyber theft, and particularly the Chinese government’s sponsorship of cyber-enabled theft of American intellectual property from companies, that was a different experience, because for years Obama raised this issue with Xi and warned of consequences, and told Xi that, although China was denying it, the United States knew that China was conducting these attacks, and that they couldn’t hide from us.
And finally, the Chinese saw evidence that the United States was preparing to take very severe action in retaliation for this, and the Chinese leadership recognized that they were reaching a dangerous, critical point, and so they sent to Washington the top security official in China, Meng Jianzhu, who came with instructions: don’t come home without an agreement.
And he stayed in Washington for several days. He met with the U.S. government team. And you may remember that the U.S. and China issued a four-point agreement. In that agreement, China essentially acknowledged that this cyber theft had occurred, committed to end it, and made some public commitments that they did implement, they did honor.
For several years after that, the U.S. agencies that were monitoring cyberattacks formed a judgment that China had, in fact, scaled back significantly the attacks that at least the government, the state, was supporting.
Q: Based on those lessons, how should the U.S. approach China?
A: My judgment is that Chinese behavior has become much more troubling and dangerous as Chinese leaders have begun to believe that they are as strong as the United States, that they are getting stronger and the U.S. is getting weaker.
I don’t think that it is wise or feasible to pursue a strategy of weakening China. Instead, it is necessary and wise to pursue a strategy of strengthening the United States and its allies because, as I pointed out before, when the power differential between the United States and China was wider, the relationship was very stable.
As long as the Chinese perception is that the United States is weak, is on the decline, is withdrawing from its traditional role in shaping and often leading international affairs, in rules-setting and so on, and has abandoned the sort of moral high ground that gave the United States so much soft power over the decades, China is incentivized to challenge more directly.
If and when the Chinese leaders see more evidence that the United States is demonstrating resilience, is renewing and reinventing itself, that the overall strength of the democratic communities is growing, not shrinking, the Chinese leaders will be much more open to compromise. They will be much more flexible, much more careful, in their behavior.
Chinese leaders are Leninists and Leninists respect strength and have contempt for weakness.
If the United States, over the course of this year, shows, for example, extraordinary ability to stop the spread of COVID-19, an extraordinary ability to develop vaccines that have 96% to 97% effective rates, demonstrates the ability to manufacture billions of doses and make them available to countries around the world, whereas China, despite its very strict and draconian controls, now continues to battle emerging cases of the delta variant, and the Chinese vaccine, Sinovac, which they have distributed around the world, is now revealed to be far less effective in preventing COVID than advertised, that’s a way in which the United States is already demonstrating its strength.
It is already outcompeting. We’re not hurting China. We’re not blocking China. But we are outperforming China.
Q: You talked about the leadership of Xi Jinping himself. How is he different from former presidents Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin before him?
A: Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao were not democrats; they had no interest in sharing power. But they were also pragmatists, and they were continuing the tradition of Deng Xiaoping, the tradition of “hiding and biding,” the tradition of opening and reform.
Xi Jinping represents a more nationalist and a more ideological strain of Leninism. In the Chinese communist system, he is clearly representing those who believe that more control is the right answer, and that political liberalization is a recipe for disaster that China cannot afford.
Q: China hawks in the U.S. have argued that the biggest problem is the Chinese Communist Party and thus the U.S. should seek regime change.
A: Number one, the people who are advocating regime change are the very people that have experimented with regime change in Iraq, in Libya, and other parts of the world. And, in every case, it has been a catastrophic failure. It’s not only that it didn’t succeed; it’s that it created immense problems in the country and immense problems in the United States.
The United States does not have the power to overthrow the Chinese Communist Party, and we know from experience that, even if we were successful, the consequences are unpredictable and immensely dangerous.
We can certainly hope for a change and an improvement. There’s much that we can do to bolster civil society within China, and much we can do to help strengthen institutions other than the Chinese Communist Party, in China.
There is a lot of pressure that can be applied externally on the Chinese leadership to limit their behavior. But the notion of the United States reaching in and changing the government in China is unrealistic and unwise.
Q: Is there a similarity between the current situation and the 1970s, in the sense that the Biden administration is now seeking a stable and predictable relationship with Russia so as to focus more on China and try to drive a wedge between China and Russia?
A: The big difference in the 1970s was that Moscow and Beijing were in an intense rivalry and were virtual enemies. Another difference was that the U.S. and the Soviet Union were in a very significant Cold War, in which we had very little economic or other mutual dependencies and were largely separated into independent blocs, and we were competing around the world for influence, in a very direct way.
Today, Russia is a relatively weak power that is largely focused on making problems, making mischief for the U.S. and for the West.
And the relationship between Moscow and Beijing is very cooperative, very collaborative. And unlike the Soviet Union, China is well integrated into the global system, the multilateral system, and the degree of economic and technological integration between China, the United States, and the rest of the West, is unimaginably large.
So, I think, in those respects, we’re in a very, very different world. And, while it is problematic for the United States when China and Russia cooperate in causing problems for us and our friends, and while there would be some virtue and value in trying to provide incentives for Moscow to moderate its behavior and to refrain from that kind of mischief-making, I don’t think there is any prospect for a kind of fundamental alteration of the triangular relationship, the way that Kissinger and Nixon changed it in 1972.
China beating US by being more like America
Cultivating human capital will be essential if the US rather than China is to be the base of the next industrial revolution
By BRANDON J WEICHERT
4/25/2021
The United States transitioned from an agrarian backwater into an industrialized superstate in a rapid timeframe. One of the most decisive men in America’s industrialization was Samuel Slater.
As a young man, Slater worked in Britain’s advanced textile mills. He chafed under Britain’s rigid class system, believing he was being held back. So he moved to Rhode Island.
Once in America, Slater built the country’s first factory based entirely on that which he had learned from working in England’s textile mills – violating a British law that forbade its citizens from proliferating advanced British textile production to other countries.
Samuel Slater is still revered in the United States as the “Father of the American Factory System.” In Britain, if he is remembered at all, he is known by the epithet of “Slater the Traitor.”
After all, Samuel Slater engaged in what might today be referred to as “industrial espionage.” Without Slater, the United States would likely not have risen to become the industrial challenger to British imperial might that it did in the 19th century. Even if America had evolved to challenge British power without Slater’s help, it is likely the process would have taken longer than it actually did.
Many British leaders at the time likely dismissed Slater’s actions as little more than a nuisance. The Americans had not achieved anything unique. They were merely imitating their far more innovative cousins in Britain.
As the works of Oded Shenkar have proved, however, if given enough time, annoying imitators can become dynamic innovators. The British learned this lesson the hard way. America today appears intent on learning a similar hard truth … this time from China.
By the mid-20th century, the latent industrial power of the United States had been unleashed as the European empires, and eventually the British-led world order, collapsed under their own weight. America had built out its own industrial base and was waiting in the geopolitical wings to replace British power – which, of course, it did.
Few today think of Britain as anything more than a middle power in the US-dominated world order. This came about only because of the careful industrial and manipulative trade practices of American statesmen throughout the 19th and first half of the 20th century employed against British power.
The People’s Republic of China, like the United States of yesteryear with the British Empire, enjoys a strong trading relationship with the dominant power of the day. China has also free-ridden on the security guarantees of the dominant power, the United States.
The Americans are exhausting themselves while China grows stronger. Like the US in the previous century, inevitably, China will displace the dominant power through simple attrition in the non-military realm.
Many Americans reading this might be shocked to learn that China is not just the land of sweatshops and cheap knockoffs – any more than the United States of previous centuries was only the home of chattel slavery and King Cotton. China, like America, is a dynamic nation of economic activity and technological progress.
While the Chinese do imitate their innovative American competitors, China does this not because the country is incapable of innovating on its own. It’s just easier to imitate effective ideas produced by America, lowering China’s research and development costs. Plus, China’s industrial capacity allows the country to produce more goods than America – just as America had done to Britain
Once China quickly acquires advanced technology, capabilities, and capital from the West, Chinese firms then spin off those imitations and begin innovating. This is why China is challenging the West in quantum computing technology, biotech, space technologies, nanotechnology, 5G, artificial intelligence, and an assortment of other advanced technologies that constitute the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Why reinvent the wheel when you can focus on making cheaper cars and better roads?
Since China opened itself up to the United States in the 1970s, American versions of Samuel Slater have flocked to China, taking with them the innovations, industries, and job offerings that would have gone to Americans had Washington never embraced Beijing.
America must simply make itself more attractive than China is to talent and capital. It must create a regulatory and tax system that is more competitive than China’s. Then Washington must seriously invest in federal R&D programs as well as dynamic infrastructure to support those programs.
As one chief executive of a Fortune 500 company told me in 2018, “If we don’t do business in China, our competitors will.”
Meanwhile, Americans must look at effective education as a national-security imperative. If we are living in a global, knowledge-based economy, then it stands to reason Americans will need greater knowledge to thrive. Therefore, cultivating human capital will be essential if America rather than China is to be the base of the next industrial revolution.
Besides, smart bombs are useless without smart people.
These are all things that the United States understood in centuries past. America bested the British Empire and replaced it as the world hegemon using these strategies. When the Soviet Union challenged America’s dominance, the US replicated the successful strategies it had used against Britain’s empire.
Self-reliance and individual innovativeness coupled with public- and private-sector cooperation catapulted the Americans ahead of their rivals. It’s why Samuel Slater fled to the nascent United States rather than staying in England.
America is losing the great competition for the 21st century because it has suffered historical amnesia. Its leaders, Democrats and Republicans alike, as well as its corporate tycoons and its people must recover the lost memory – before China cements its position as the world’s hegemon.
The greatest tragedy of all is that America has all of the tools it needs to succeed. All it needs to do is be more like it used to be in the past. To do that, competent and inspiring leadership is required. And that may prove to be the most destructive thing for America in the competition to win the 21st century.
Source: https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/china-beating-us-by-being-more-like-america/
Feb 18, 2021
Aug 4, 2020