抵押贷款利率持续攀升美国房价明年或下跌多达20%

Newtalk

10/29/2022

美国一些城市的住宅房地产需求降温，导致 2022 年下半年房价下滑。华尔街一位知名经济学家表示，随着抵押贷款利率的攀升和住房市场在 COVID-19 大流行疫情之后的正常化，明年房价可能继续下跌多达 20%。

据美国媒体《 CBS 》报导，华尔街的经济咨询公司 Pantheon Macroeconomics 的首席经济学家伊恩‧谢波德森（ Ian Shepherdson ）在上周的一份报告中说，在抵押贷款利率急剧上升的情况下，房屋的需求下降，对房价产生了很大的影响。他表示 :“我们预计房屋销售将持续下降，直到明年初。”、“到那时，销售量将下降到最低水平，即只有那些因工作或家庭情况而别无选择的人在搬家。”

不过，高盛公司（ Goldman Sachs ）的经济学家说，他们预计明年的房价将下降 5% 至 10%，幅度较温和。

去年房价飙升幅度最大的城市，现在正看到价格下降，包括德州奥斯汀、亚利桑那州凤凰城、犹他州盐湖城和科罗拉多州丹佛等地。根据全国房地产经纪人协会（ NAR ）的数据，上个月的房屋销售量下降到 470 万套，比 8 月份下降了 1.5%。

利率上升可能进一步收紧供应

今年的抵押贷款利率已经增加了一倍多。上周，典型的 30 年期抵押贷款的平均利率，从 1 月份的 3.2% 上升到 6.94%。15 年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率，现在是 6.23%，而一年前是 2.33%。

不断上升的利率，也迫使一些卖房者在出售房产时踩下了刹车，因为在利率飙升的情况下，他们必须获得抵押贷款，来购买另一套房子。“即使是想换房的人，也完全有可能面临更大的月供”，谢波德森说 :“这是一个留在原地的好理由，从而制约了供应。”

根据 NAR 的数据，9 月份未售出的现有房屋库存，连续第二个月下降到 125 万套。谢波德森预测，明年可供销售的房屋供应量可能会缩减，同时表示：“价格必须大幅下降，才能恢复平衡。”

牛津经济研究院（ Oxford Economics ）首席美国经济学家南希‧范登‧豪顿（ Nancy Vanden Houten ）在一份研究报告中说：“我们认为，未来一两个月库存可能会适度增加，因为房屋在市场上停留的时间更长。但是随着卖家采取观望态势，新上市房屋会继续减少。”

利率会涨到多高？

经济学家们预计明年抵押贷款利率将继续攀升，因为美联储为遏制通货膨胀，而进一步推高借贷成本。

利率可能达到 8.5%，“这将是对住房市场的又一次巨大冲击”，全国房地产协会首席经济学家劳伦斯‧云（ Lawrence Yun ）上上周告诉一群房地产投资者。其他分析师预测，抵押贷款利率可能达到两位数。

Whalen Global Advisors 表示，它预计到 2023 年 4 月，利率将达到两位数。自 1989 年以来，抵押贷款利率从未达到过这些水平，当时的利率为 10.25%。美国历史上最高的抵押贷款利率，是 1981 年 10月的 16.64%。

Source

大华府房产交易放缓房价涨3.3% 维州福斯教堂市涨近20% 幅度最大

世界新闻网

10/19/2022

大华府地区的房产销售持续放缓，今年9月的整体房价比去年同期增长逾3%，涨幅最明显的是维州福斯教堂市(Falls Church City)，增长了近20%，而阿灵顿郡的房价下降近14%，主要原因是今年售出的房产除了独栋房屋外还包括许多公寓，房产分析师表示，来年房价会逐渐回落，但仍比疫情前高二至四成。

房地产网站Bright MLS的报告显示，大华府地区今年9月售出房产价格的平均中位数，比去年同期上升了3.3%，多数地区的房价都有不同幅度的增长，涨幅最大的是维州福斯教堂市，增长了19.6%，费尔法克斯市(Fairfax City)也增长14.6%

大华府仅有北维州的两个地区出现房价回落，包括阿灵顿郡(Arlington County)，价格中位数下降了13.6%，以及亚历山卓市(Alexandria City)降了近10%。

Bright MLS首席经济分析师司徒兰特(Lisa Sturtevant)表示，阿灵顿郡和亚历山卓市的情况之所以与大华府其他多数地区不同，主要原因是今年售出的房产与去年不同，今年的房产交易中包括许多公寓(condo)，而去年多以独栋房屋(house)为主，因此今年的平均售价中位数比去年低。

司徒兰特说，秋冬季时房产销售一般会减速，但对比去年同期，今年放缓得格外明显，今年9月签订的交易合同比去年同期减少了32.7%，这也是连续第七个月呈下降趋势，「去年的房产交易异常活络，因此放缓趋势不令人意外，但今年有待推进的房产交易数量甚至比2019年前还少，大华府已多年未见此情况。」

根据房产数据分析，未来一年房产销售仍将持续放缓，因贷款利率居高不下，买者减少，房价增长速度也将相应放缓，不过短期内房价下降的幅度不会很明显，司徒兰特表示，尽管房价将逐渐脱离最高峰，但仍会比新冠疫情前的价格多二成至四成。

大华府售出房价平均中位数及变化（数据源：Bright MLS网站制表：记者张筠）

Source

Townhouse For Sale

21767 Dryden Ct, Ashburn, VA 20147

MLS# VALO2038798

List Price: $359,900

Total Finished SQFT: 1,024

Posted: 10/15/2022

Newly renovated 3-story townhome in Parkside at Ashburn. Brand new white shaker, tall cabinets with granite countertop in an expanded kitchen design, stylish LVP floor on all 3 levels, newly installed quality carpet on staircase, new deck off the kitchen and dining area.

Neutral color throughout the home with plenty of windows and natural light, combined with high ceilings and ceiling fans make the home feel roomy and comfortable.

Upstairs with one large-sized bedroom with a walk-in closet, a full bath with tub and slower, a full set of washer/dryer, and a generous landing area that give you lots of privacy and convenience. Entrance level is appointed with a study / sitting area and a tiled foyer.

Attached one car garage with own driveway is great for storage and parking. Very well managed gated community only 3 minutes from the toll road and the Ashburn Moorefield Station metro. Excellent community with pool, playground, gym, sports courts, trails, and lots of organized neighborhood activities for residents.

Super low monthly management fee for a low maintenance lifestyle in modern Ashburn. Come see it today!

Park in the space after the gate next to the club house, any unmarked space, or in the driveway. Make an appointment online to show anytime 8am to 7pm.

Community gate will be closed after dark. Text (317) 762-7934 for any issues with showings or questions.

For the MLS listing, please visit:

https://matrix.brightmls.com/Matrix/Public/Portal.aspx?ID=DE-1913743380376&agt=1

Instructions for showing

Showing Method: In-Person Only

Please schedule online or text the owner at (317) 762-7934 for showings.

Directions: GRRENWAY TO EXIT 6, R RYAN, L ON SHELLHORN, L WAXPOOL, L AMBERLY, R ON DRYDEN.

Flat-Fee MLS Listing Service in Northern VA

**Neighborhood Specialist (McLean, Falls Church, Vienna)** |
**Helping For Sale by Owner & For Rent by Owner**

DIY Landlord – Renting out Properties Safer and Quicker!

By David Chen

3/05/2022

Q. We purchased our first home some years ago, and are about to move to another home. We are considering to keep our first home as an income property. We heard of the free ads on CRAIGSLIST and zillow.com, but some landlord friends told us it could be a challenge to find qualified tenants through CRAIGSLIST and zillow.com. Is there any way to rent our property out quicker and safer with minimum cost? We are the kind of persons who would like to try things ourselves, and have some spare time.

A. You may have already done the initial research and have figured out the range of monthly rent of your property.

If the monthly rent is low such as $1800.00 or below, you may want to do it through CRAIGSLIST, https://postlets.com/, zillow.com, or similar web sites. The renters interested in the low-priced rentals may not go to the Realtors community for assistance.

If the monthly rent is $1800.00 or above, you may want to consider listing your rental on brightmls.com for the Realtors community to market it for you.

Bright MLS is made up of nine forward thinking MLSs (43 Associations) in the Mid-Atlantic region who put aside their differences and came together with a shared vision to help solve MLS market overlap and empower everyone to get more out of the MLS. Bright will serve parts of 6 states plus Washington, D.C. encompassing 85,000 real estate professionals who serve over 20 million consumers and facilitate approximately 250,000 transactions a year that are valued at more than $70 billion.

Dozens of public real estate websites (such as: zillow.com, redfin.com, brightmlshomes.com, etc.) pull data from brightmls.com through syndication. In a few hours, your listing will show up on dozens of websites and will get the maximum exposure. It is a lot quicker and safer finding qualified tenants than doing it through CRAIGSLIST and zillow.com. You may talk with a Realtor for assistance. Please be aware some Realtors take rental jobs, some don’t.

Over the years I have helped some landlords in the community renting their properties out with very low cost. A popular arrangement is to help the landlords ‘DIY’, which has been working well for those experienced landlords.

The good side of ‘DIY’ is that the landlords can ‘screen’ the potential tenants from the very beginning, have 100% control of the whole process, and enjoy the feeling of “on top of things”.

If you prefer minimum service, I can help you ‘DIY’:

1. I provide CMA, list your rental on brightmls.com, put a realtor’s lockbox at the front door if needed, provide the access log (if needed), support you through the whole process.

I charge a flat fee for the minimum service.

2. If you would like me to prepare the lease or review the lease, there is another reasonable flat fee. This service is optional.

3. You answer phone calls, work with the tenant (if the tenant doesn’t have an agent) or the tenant’s agent, run credit check, verify employment, check references, etc.. You pay the tenant’s agent (if there is one) directly on the move-in date – usually 25% of first-month rent.

If you need full-service, the commission is first-month rent – which includes the commission to be paid to the tenant’s agent.

If you need any customized service (between minimum service and full-service), we can work out an agreement.

Some information:

CMA stands for Comparable (some called Competitive) Market Analysis, that will help you determine the market value of your property for sale or for rent.

I use Sentry-key lockbox. Any Realtor with membership of NVAR (Northern Virginia Association of Realtors) or any other VA Realtors association can access and show the property.

The access log tells when the agents enter the property and their contact info. which can help you follow up with the agents.

If you like the DIY experience, I would recommend you to use the minimum service.

Please feel free to reach me if you need any assistance.
—
David Chen
Realtor (Licensed in VA) | Neighborhood Specialist (McLean, Falls Church, Vienna)
Libra Realty, LLC
dchenj@gmail.com
703-395-5406

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Websites that will show your flat fee mls listings

4/01/2022

Almost all real estate websites that offer the ability to search brokerage listings use a data feed from the MLS called Internet Data Exchange (IDX) to pull in listing data. Depending on the number of sites tapping into your MLS, your listing could appear on hundreds of websites. We do not control the content of any of the websites listed below. updated periodically & subject to change at any time Here are some examples of national websites by area that pull listings from the MLS: