美房市降温了？这项商品价格自Fed升息来暴跌50%
世界新闻网
5/31/2022
美国木材价格从3月初来已暴跌超过50%，是美国联准会升息，导致疫情期间火热房市降温的最新迹象。
华尔街日报报导，在疫情期间实施封锁措施后，木材价格成为供应链问题和通膨的领先指针。木材价格在2020年夏季飙涨，原因是被关在家的民众大规模修缮房屋，且对郊区房屋需求激增。到了去年春季，木材价格是疫情前高点的逾两倍。现在，建材价格正闪烁警讯。
7月交割的木材期货上周五（27日）收在每千板英尺695.10美元，较3月初高点重挫超过52%。现货木材价格同样崩跌。定价服务机构Random Lengths上周五表示，追踪现货销售的屋架综合指数上周下跌约12%至794美元，远低于3月的1,334美元。3月正是联准会祭出2018年来首度升息之时。
利率上扬、房屋待售对象供应有限，加上卖方出价高，正开始对美国房市产生影响。
房地美（Freddie Mac）的数据显示，美国30年固定房贷利率平均为5.1%，高于年初的3.1%，这让人们房贷重担增加。美国4月新屋销售较前月下滑16.6%，降幅为九年来最大，销量降至2020年4月来最低，当时正值防疫封锁措施冲击市场。另据人口普查局的数据，独栋房屋完工数、开工数和营建许可数据在4月都下滑。
定价服务机构Random Lengths表示，木材买家已减缓下订单，在木材厂的木材正成堆存放，这些因素都导致价格下跌。该机构上周五表示：「三位数的折扣变成惯例而非例外。」
怕错过好行情 美屋主急入市 房源供应和降价求售比均增
世界新闻网
5/26/2022
抵押贷款利率大幅上扬导致房屋销售突然下滑，美国的屋主急于在房市突然降温之前进场，使待售房屋的供应大增，降价求售比达到2019年10月以来最高。在此同时，纽约联邦准备银行周四发布报告说，大多数消费者仍然认为当前的通膨冲击只是暂时的，长期而言，物价涨幅不大且将维持稳定。
Realtor.com汇整数据发现，美国上周待售房屋数与去年同期相比大增9%，是2017年开始追踪该指针以来最大。
房仲业者Redfin也表示，在止于5月15日的四个星期里，新房源的增速几乎是一年前的两倍。
Redfin的首席经济学家Daryl Fairweather说：「抵押贷款利率上扬导致房市发生变化，卖家急于在需求进一步减弱之前找到买家。
房市显有疲软之态，4月的成屋待完成销售比3月减少了将近4%。
根据Redfin周四撰写的报告，截至5月22日的四周里，几乎每五位卖家就有一位降价。其他衡量房市火热程度的指针，包括在市场挂牌求售的时间，以及成交价高于开价比，也都遇到停滞期。
另外，纽约联准银行调查证实，尽管短期通膨预期上升，但消费者预期，未来五年物价的平均涨幅只有大约3%。研究人员说，这表示消费者认为近期的价格飙涨现象会随时间的推移降温。
在纽约联准银行总裁John Williams被列为共同作者的博客文章里，研究人员说，「短期通膨预期虽继续呈现升势，但中期通膨预期在过去几个月似已进入平台期，而长期通膨预期依然相当稳定」。
不过，研究人员指出，「令人惊讶的是，消费者的中期通膨预期存在分歧」。认为三年后会是高通膨和低通膨（甚至是通缩）的受访者比率双双上升。
房市火热，黑人购屋族却居于劣势
世界新闻网
5/24/2022
48岁的琼斯(Nicosha Jones)花了近一年的时间想买下她人生第一套房子。
她看好的地点就在她长大的凤凰城南部社区。但是这近一年的时间中，她一直没办法如愿；面对飞涨的租金，只能一再重新规划购屋计划。
琼斯，「这真的非常令人失望，非常令人沮丧。」这就是美国梦。一旦有了自己的房子，你就会觉得人生已经完美了。」
对于美国家庭来说，买房从未像现在这样困难或价格昂贵，房价创历史新高，而现在房贷利率飙升，远高于5%。根据房地美(Freddie Mac)的数据，购买房产的典型每月房贷支付额比一年前增加超过30%。
市场正在为各种背景的首购族定价，但黑人买家面临更大的障碍。
研究显示，黑人购屋者不太可能来自富裕家庭，更有可能背负债务，并且支付不成比例的更高租金，这使得存下自付额变得更加困难。
根据Zillow对《房屋抵押披露法》数据的分析，黑人申请者被拒绝房屋贷款的比率远高于其他群体。 2020年，近20%的黑人申请人被拒绝抵押贷款，而白人申请人的比率为10%。信用记录是黑人申请人被拒绝的最常见原因。
拜登政府5月公布了一项行动计划，以增加经济适用房的供应并减少美国各地的住房短缺。官员们表示，这应该会在5年内缓解住房供应短缺的问题。
但目前很少有任何建案可以帮助琼斯和其他难以负担房屋的潜在买家。
这在当前炙手可热的房地产市场上造成了巨大的障碍，在这个市场上，现金出价的投资客购买的房产比以往任何时候都多，用于出租或炒作。根据Redfin对郡级地产的记录分析，在2021年最后一季，投资客购买了创纪录的18.4%的美国房屋，高于一年前的12.6%。
在凤凰城，投资客特别活跃，在同一时间段内购买了28.4%的房产。
琼斯花了将近一年的时间试图在当地买下她的第一套房子。她已经开始存钱，并已获准获得FHA贷款，首付只需3.5%。但由于预留的首付不到6000美元，琼斯无法竞标，并最终退出搜索。
她说，「每次我提出报价，每次我去看房时，我的出价都被比下去，或者有人已经捷足先登。」「我只能排在后段班，因为我现在买不起那里的东西。」
琼斯的房产经纪人费尔(Maisha Fair)说，她在凤凰城的许多客户都面临着同样的困境，「他们再也买不起房子，只能被困在租屋市场。」「它伤害了住在这里的人。」
某些专家预计，这些市场状况会扩大种族住房所有权差距。
人口普查数据显示，近45%的黑人家庭拥有自己的房屋，而白人家庭的比率为74%。自1960年代《公平住房法》禁止住房歧视以来，这种差距几乎没有改变。
全国房地产经纪人协会(NAR)人口统计和行为洞察副总裁劳兹(Jessica Lautz)说，「不幸的是，房屋所有权差距事实上已经扩大。」「疫情更加剧了一切。当我们看到房屋所有权的不平等时，黑人购房者进入购房市场的难度更大，因为他们在疫情中受到的打击更大。」
拥有财产是家庭积累财富的主要手段，而且从未像现在这样有价值。
根据布鲁金斯学会的经济政策倡议汉密尔顿计划，截至2019年，白人家庭的平均财富是典型黑人家庭的7.8倍。
布鲁金斯学会资深研究员佩里(Andre Perry)说：「房屋所有权差距将加剧贫富差距。」「当人们不买房时，只会让后代更难买房；因为大多数收入来自买房。」
飞涨的租金成本可能会进一步扩大种族贫富差距，让更多人流离失所。
美国4月租金创历史新高，预计将继续上涨。根据Realtor.com的一份报告，全国租金中位数为每月1827元，较一年前增加16.7%。
佩里说，「市场肯定在加速高档化。」「这真正意味着人们将被推到低财富、低资源的郊区。人们将远离工作岗位，家庭将陷入困境。」
凤凰城房地产经纪人费尔表示，投资客不仅仅是购买房产，他们还将租金推高到家庭被迫搬家的地步。
她说，「他们不能再住在熟识的邻居社区里了。」「进入并以现金购买这些房屋的投资客，现在正把房子租给那些想买房的人。」
琼斯在凤凰城的房租每月上涨400元。 在失去工作几个月后，她花光了为首付预留的6000元。 现在，她更专注于维持生计，而不是让她的购房梦想成为现实。
她说：「一切问题都是钱，我甚至连住都住不起。」「所以，没错，这真的让人痛心。」
Healthcare Certification and ESL Programs
房价最贵5城都在加州…圣荷西中位价139万 全美唯一
世界新闻网
5/19/2022
全美房价持续上升，今年4月成屋销售中位数达到39万1200元，创下近几年来的最高纪录，但成交数却不增反减，主要是因为高额的房价和贷款利率上升，使买家们退却；而网络房地产商Zillow针对近100个城市分析，公布4月数据显示，全美十个房屋中位价最高的城市，前五名都被加州盘据，圣荷西(San Jose)更是唯一中位价上百万的城市，中位房价达139万元。
Zillow的分析显示，中间房价前十大城市圣荷西之后是洛杉矶、旧金山、范杜拉(Ventura)、圣地牙哥(San Diego)，中间房价90万美元以上；其次依序是康州史坦福(Stamford)、华盛顿州西雅图(Seattle)、麻州波士顿(Boston)、夏威夷州檀香山(Honolulu)以及纽约市(New York City)。
洛杉矶市区涵盖长堤(Long Beach)和安那罕(Anaheim)，中间房价99万8330元；接着依序是旧金山97万8478元、范杜拉94万3967元、圣地牙哥92万1000元。
加州之外其他城市中间房价依序是史坦福略低于90万元、西雅图78万2997元、波士顿74万6000元、檀香山72万1667元、纽约市69万2333元。
过去新冠疫情间，受房贷利率有史以来最低以及人们购屋欲望提升的影响，美国房市不断飙涨；但近几个月利率逐渐回升，买气也开始冷却，全国房地产经纪人协会(NAR)19日公布的数据显示，今年4月的成屋销售量比一个月前减少2.4%，比一年前减少5.9%，为2020年6月以来最低。
不过同一月份，成屋售价的中位数却比去年同一时期成长14.8%，达到39万1200元的高点，NAR称其为1999年以来的新高；NAR首席经济学者云恩(Lawrence Yun)分析：「高房价和高利率会降低买气，我们的房市正在回到疫情前的状态。」
先前由华尔街日报(WSJ)制作的经济调查报告则预测，占全美房市最大宗的成屋销售额将每月降低2.3%；房屋贷款抵押公司房地美(Freddie Mac)的数据也显示，截至19日当周，平均30年期的房贷固定利率为5.25%，比一年前成长3%。
从今年初就一直在费城郊区搜索购屋标的的买家夫妇萝伦和罗伯特·弗里兹(Lauren and Robert Fritz)表示竞争相当激烈，决定先暂缓竞标：「利率一直上升，但房价还是疯狂上涨，我已经受够了。」
去年买预售屋 今年房贷利率翻倍「每月多缴数百元」
世界新闻网
5/17/2022
受到升息影响，某些签约买下仍在兴建中房屋，但尚未完成过户的消费者，如今面临的意外状况是，房贷利息恐将比原本预期的增加将近一倍。
毕瑞吉斯(Taylor Briggs)与妻子2021年夏天缴付头期款，买下一栋位于明尼苏达州萨维奇(Savage)的新建房屋，当时房贷利息为2.875%。今年1月间，毕瑞吉斯夫妻有机会选择在75天内以3.75%锁定利率，不过两人考虑到施工严重延误而未接受。
毕瑞吉斯说，当时不曾料想到的是，利息后来快速增加，到了2月间变成以4.375%锁定利率45天，提高头期款金额后将利率压到3.625%，房屋已于3月间过户。
今年购买新建房屋的消费者，遭遇问题一波又一波，包括供应链紧缩及缺工问题导致施工进度延误，后来又发现房贷利率调高。今年初或2021年当中签约购屋的消费者，当时估计买房之后每个月需要缴交的房贷，利率大多在3%左右或不到3%，直逼史上新低纪录。
不过，联准会宣布升息之后，根据房屋贷款抵押公司房地美(Freddie Mac)统计，房贷利率在今春平均已增加到大约5.3%。
华尔街日报分析，利息升高的结果是，消费者每个月要多缴数百元房贷，如果不能承担这笔额外开销，民众只能放弃买房梦想，头期款泡汤。
房贷仲介及房屋建商指出，到目前为止，大多数申请房贷民众都愿意承担额外开销以保住房贷。然而，新建房屋房价迅速增加，加上房贷利率变高等因素，恐让未来几个月新屋市场变得冷却。
报导指出，相较之下，成屋市场受到升息风险冲击较少，因为房子通常在签约后一个月到两个月之内便完成过户，担心利息波动的买房民众可以选择锁定利率，期间通常是30天至60天里。
全美房屋销售当中，约有10%是购买新建房屋，买主签订购屋契约之后缴交头期款，等待完工过户。供应链问题导致施工耽搁，许多新建房屋过户因此拖延数周，甚至数月。约翰勃恩斯房地产顾问公司(John Burns Real Estate Consulting)研究部主任帕拉西欧斯(Rick Palacios Jr.)分析，这种状况造成许多不确定因素出现，购屋民众变得无力买房的几率随之增加。
帕拉西欧斯说，建商可以把房子卖给排在候补名单上的消费者，但今年4月间约翰勃恩斯房地产顾问公司在一项调查研究里发现，某些建商反应说，升息消息传出之后，有兴趣等候买房机会的候补名单跟着缩水。
西雅图夫妇退休后以游轮为家 发现费用还比房贷便宜
世界新闻网
5/11/2022
53岁的美国妇人安乔琳・柏克和她的先生理查，自2021年5月起，就把游轮当成退休后的家，两夫妻会换游轮搭，每晚的平均费用是88美元，一年只要32120美元，比以前缴房贷还便宜。他们目前没有返回陆上定居的计划。
媒体网站Upworthy报导，柏克夫妇原本住西雅图，这个美西大城的平均房价是95万8027美元，一年房贷就要缴掉大约50000美元，远高于搭游轮出海旅行的费用。此外，上了游轮就不需要采买食物。
两夫妻表示，他们能实现提早退休的梦想，是因为两个人「这辈子都很省吃俭用并进行投资」，他们「不看重物质，看重的是体验」。
爱好旅游的安乔琳说，游轮能减轻旅行的压力，「没有预订酒店、餐馆和交通的麻烦，是悠闲的游行，而且在预算范围内」。两人轻装上路，只有两个行李箱，如果需要任何东西，就在船上或下一个港口买。
自从退休离开美国之后，柏克夫妇已经去过亚得里亚海50天游，以及西雅图到澳洲雪梨的51天游。他们很爱搭船去意大利、加拿大、冰岛，但最喜欢的是新加坡。
房价高估73% 穆迪：全美97%城市房价因疫情推高
世界新闻网
5/08/2022
穆迪公司(Moody’s)的分析指出，美国97%城市的房屋价格过高，未来数年部分地区的房价可能下跌10%。
穆迪首席经济师赞迪(Mark Zandi)在最新的分析中说，新冠疫情推高了全美部分地区的房价，房价最为过高的城市是爱达荷州的博伊西(Boise)，原因是疫情下，不少IT人搬离加州的大城市来到这个小城市，结果造成房价被高估73%。
赞迪预测，疫情期间出现大量买家涌入的南部和西部山区城市，未来几年房价可能会下跌10%。
他建议，如果可以的话，等待一、两年才买房子，因为价格过高的城市， 一旦房价下跌时，可以愈跌愈多，可供选择的也会更多。
赞迪指出，如果一个地区的房地产成本，远高于房屋价格与收入、租金、建筑成本的关系，便可以介定为房价给高估了。
这也解释了，为何类似博伊西这样的小城市，居然在房价给高估的名单上高踞榜首，而不是像纽约、旧金山这类传统高房价城市。这些大城市房屋平均尺价或许更高，然而那里的市民通常收入更高，可以承受更高的房屋成本。
在博伊西之后，排第二房价格过高的是德州谢尔曼-丹尼森(Sherman-Denison)，超价60%，第三高是密西根州的马斯基根(Muskegon)，房价被高估了59%。
赞迪这个分析可能会引起部分购房者的担忧，尤其是疫情期间房价飙涨时购买房子的人，他们正面临着高房价及房贷利率快速上升的的双重打击。
房地产网站Zillow的高级经济师塔克(Jeff Tucker) 也认为，一方面的房价高昂及房贷利率上升，另方面是租金飙涨，是买房还是租房都并不容易。2021年，全美50大城市的月租金平均上涨了14%，这激发了不少人宁愿买房子，至少可以锁定每月稳定的偿还房贷，这样一来也推高了房价。
目前不少人担心高房价会否面临另一个房市泡沫，但塔克认为是不会的。
他说现在与2006年房市泡沫爆破时，有很多明显的不同，主要是近期购房者的信用都非常良好，每月偿还房贷只占收入三分一左右。
旧金山、圣荷西房价 世界百大都会区最难负担
世界新闻网
5/06/2022
房价愈涨愈高，一项新研究增强了旧金山与圣荷西购屋者的困难现实，这两个房地产市场是全球最难负担的市场。研究人员发现，这两个湾区都会区随着疫情期间、全世界难以负担房市范围扩大而房价上涨，导致中等收入买家越来越无法拥有房屋。
「2022年人口统计国际住房可负担报告」(2022 Demographia International Housing Affordability report)调查8个国家的近100个房地产市场中，只有一个房市在衡量与收入相关的房价时仍然为「可负担」(affordable)：匹兹堡。
报告指出，新冠疫情推动房市快速转变，导致价格以「前所未见」(Unprecedented)速度增长。休士顿「都市改革研究所」(Urban Reform Institute)资深研究所考克斯(Wendell Cox)表示，由于疫情相关的「需求冲击」(demand shock)，所有市场过去几年的住房负担能力都在恶化，家庭寻找更大房子与后院，需求增加。
报告基于2021年第三季度数据，使用房价中位数除以家庭总收入中位数的房价收入比(price-to-income ratio)评估中等收入住房的负担能力。在澳洲、加拿大、中国、爱尔兰、新西兰、新加坡、英国与美国的92个大城市房市中，只有匹兹堡保持在可负担范围内，成为在美国与国际排名第一的最实惠市场。
旧金山在国际排名第86、圣荷西排名第89，排名仅在加拿大温哥华、澳洲雪梨、香港之前。报告调查56个美国市场，旧金山排名第54、圣荷西排名第56。报告将旧金山市场定义包括旧金山、马林、阿拉米达、康曲柯士达、圣马刁等县；圣荷西市场包括圣荷西、圣他克拉拉与圣比尼度县(San Benito County)。
尽管这些大都会地区的房屋价格不同，但至少有七位数是稀松平常：圣荷西与旧金山地区城市的房屋中位数售价分别为145万元与153万元。「Realtor.com」报告这两个城市的挂牌售价中位数皆为130万元。
根据人口普查，确定购屋负担能力的另一个数字是家庭收入中位数。旧金山为11万9136元、圣荷西为11万7324元。相较之下，匹兹堡的家庭收入中位数为6万1969元仅约为湾区城市一半。匹兹堡的房屋售价中位数为23万1700元、挂牌房屋中位价为23万元。
美国房价下跌最快的10地区 西海岸的它也上榜
文章来源: 西雅图活雷锋
5/02/2022
自疫情以来，美国房价疯涨！一直有都市传说称“房市要崩了”，但是两年来房价几乎每个月都能创下新高。22年春季，房市开局依旧强劲。
不过，据美国房地产协会官方网站realtor.com 4月15日的报道称：美国房价下跌已经正式开始了。
房市会崩盘吗？
Realtor.com 表示，这不是大衰退的重演，而将是房价较小规模的下跌，并不预示着另一场崩盘。
根据Realtor的数据，目前美国新上市的房源开始缓慢的增加，待售房屋的价格也开始下跌了。在上周，新的房源数量比去年同期上涨了8%，而此前新上市的房源曾连续四周出现下滑。
Realtor.com指出，此次房价下跌主要原因是：
1.固定抵押贷款利率的快速攀升（已经涨到了5%以上，为10多年来最高点）；
2.受到整体金融环境下行影响（高通胀和租金暴涨）。
Realtor.com的经济研究经理 George Ratiu 表示：“我们还没有陷入房地产泡沫，但如果价格继续以目前的速度上涨，我们将接近泡沫。如果抵押贷款利率继续上升，一些市场将出现修正，销售量将下降，降价也将随之而来。”
但他也补充说：“我预计市场不会出现巨大的崩盘或止赎激增，出现降价也将是缓慢的降价。”
其实早在四月中上旬，另一家地产服务公司Redfin也在一份报告中称：有初步迹象显示美国楼市一些最热门地区出现降温情况，表明高房价和不断上升的抵押贷款利率正导致购房者需求减弱。
房价下跌最快的城市
此外，Realtor.com预测了美国房价下跌最快的10个地区，西海岸只有洛杉矶上榜。
1.Toledo, OH
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$115,000
挂牌价格变化中位数：-18.7%
2. Rochester, NY
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$149,900
挂牌价格变化中位数：-17.0%
3.Detroit
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$75,000
挂牌价格变化中位数：-15.4%
4. Pittsburgh, PA
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$230,000
挂牌价格变化中位数：-13.7%
5. Springfield, MA
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$239,900
挂牌价格变化中位数：-5.8%
6. Tulsa, OK
房屋挂牌价中位数为： $220,000
挂牌价格变化中位数：-5.0%
7. Los Angeles
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$985,000
挂牌价格变化中位数：-5.0%
8. Memphis, TN
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$173,500
挂牌价格变化中位数： -4.6%
9. Chicago
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$399,000
挂牌价格变化中位数： -3.7%
10. Richmond, VA
房屋挂牌价中位数为：$310,000
挂牌价格变化中位数： -3.4%
哪里跌，哪里继续涨
通过上面的预测排名，我们发现除了洛杉矶以外，较华人聚集地区，上述九个地方的房价本来就比较亲民了。
George Ratiu 预计房价可能下跌5%至15%，具体取决于当地房地产市场。在经济陷入困境，且没有吸引新居民所需要好工作的地区，可能会出现更大的价格下跌。俄亥俄州的托莱多（Toledo）和纽约州的罗切斯特（Rochester）等地的价格已经在暴跌。
而拥有大量高薪技术和制造业工作的理想社区，可能会看到价格仍继续上涨。因为市场上仍有很多买家，却没有足够的房屋来满足他们的需求，这使得市场依旧保持相对强劲。
即使房价已经有开始降温的现象，但是以目前的市场来看，对于买家还是非常不友好。
你所在地区的房价现在是涨是跌呢？欢迎在评论区分享经验。
投资德州之前再想想 最大都会休士顿住房愈来愈难负担
世界新闻网
4/27/2022
休士顿住房愈来愈难负担。根据莱斯大学（Rice University）金德城市研究所（Kinder Institute for Urban Research）近期发布的研究指出，过去23个月，休士顿地区独立屋平均价格，从30万9975元上涨至41万923元，增加32.5%。出租房屋的平均租金，也从每月1675元增加至2075元，成长23.8%。
ABC 13电视台报导，对一些人说，这意味着愈来愈无法负担购屋或租屋，甚至面临遭驱逐命运。这也表明，该地区经济适用房(affordable housing)，已不那么负担得起。
拥有30多年房地产经济苏拉特（Tim Surratt）说，他的买家有能力购屋，他们花更多钱，在需求巨大且库存很少的市场上购屋。
「这情况发生在每个价格点」苏拉特说，「房价低于30万元的房屋愈来愈难找到，除非去更远的地方，才可能有负担得起住房。」
金德城市研究所主任傅尔顿（Bill Fulton）说，对很多人来说，住房变得愈来愈难以负担，有些人勉强度日，需要租屋。「新冠肺炎疫情肯定加剧此一问题，但经济适用房在此之前，已经是个问题。」
「在飓风哈维（Harvey）期间，大量出租房被淘汰，如今竞争更加激烈，人们开始支付更多房租，超出他们承受力」傅尔顿说。
住在休士顿第五区（Fifth Ward）的史蒂文森（Joetta Stevenson），其是休士顿居民团体，公平住房和社区权利联盟（Fair Housing and Neighborhood Rights）成员之一。
她说，「若你在哈维期间已遇到麻烦，你会一次又一次的遭遇问题。」
同样也是公平住房和社区权利联盟成员的兰德尔（Ruth Randle），靠每月800元生活。今年68岁的她，只能找一份额外工作勉强糊口。
休士顿住房管理局（Houston Housing Authority）称，目前有8000到2万人在等候名单上，他们都在寻求帮助，希望有关当局协助寻找各种经济适用房。
该机构首席执行官诺斯（David Northern）告诉ABC 13，「从疫情中走出来，许多家庭收入不足，租金也上扬。愿意将经济适用房出租给人们的房东并不多，我们需和当地民选官员合作解决此问题。」
致力低收入住房的非营利组织倡导者Julia Orduna说，在最低收入阶层中，每100个家庭，只有19套可负担房产。「负担能力一直是个问题，尤其是休士顿」。
买家下个标的物? 德州造镇首批750栋独立屋 明夏上市
世界新闻网
4/18/2022
随着德州人口成级数增长，德州正进行一项造镇计划，第一波住宅于明夏上市。位于圣安东尼奥东北方新布兰福市（New Branufels）正式进行一项名为梅菲尔（Mayfair）开发计划。4月12日于该地区动工，预计这项6000个住宅单位的开发计划，将在15年内逐年完成。
休士顿纪事报报导，总部位于新布兰福市，负责梅菲尔开发的SouthStar Communities开发商资深副总裁米尔斯（Chip Mills）说，「我们在美国南部创建社区超过25年，没什么比在自家后院工作更好的。」
他并表示，开发计划会保护自然美景，考虑周围环境影响，替大家创造新的住房与就业机会。
这个6000个住宅单位开发计划，包括独立屋、复合式住宅(duplexes）、联排房屋（Townhouse）和多单位住宅（multi-family units），共开发1888亩土地。
梅菲尔计划，还包括70亩商业开发区，120亩混合用图空间，和超过300亩公园空地。该社区将有两所新小学、一所中学和一所高中，隶属卡梅尔独立学区（Comal ISD）。
这项开发计划将连接I-35高速公路东西侧，并在Watson Lane和Kohlenberg间新重建的I-35地下信道连接起来。该计划也将通过一个水资源改善区，提供公用设施，该区将替近1900亩最先进基础设去提供部分资金。
今年3月28日，新布兰福市议会批准梅菲尔计划第一阶段，包括1532套住房、一所学校、一个娱乐中心和99亩公园。
根据新布兰福经济和社区发展，2020年该市开始与开发商谈判一项协议，包括该市如何进行开发，城市如何审查批准等。
根据新闻稿，750套大小不一的独立屋，已与地区和国家建筑商签订合约，部分房屋预计2023年夏季上市。
该市市长布罗克曼（Rusty Brockman）说，SouthStar团队与市府和新布兰福公用事业公司合作18个月，举办多次公听会，确保社区考虑到梅菲尔开发计划。他说，「我们致力于展示梅菲尔，将其作为该地区明智开发典范。」
卖房最佳时点 就看4月接下来三周
世界新闻网
4/08/2022
想将手上的房子变现换钱？4月接下来三周都是个不错的放手点。地产商Realtor.com分析历史数据发现，4月10日至16日当周的买家最为强势，出价高于底价的意愿也最高。
来不及下周就让房子开放标售？另一家地产商Zillow则发现，4月下半月的每个周四都是买气最旺的日期，也就是21日或28日，因为卖价平均高出其他日期2.8%，平均多了1100元。
Healthcare Certification and ESL Programs
不过，来不及在4月把旧房子整理好的人也别着急，因为Zillow的分析师Nicole Bachaud指出，因为美国房市供不应求，所以就算是过了4月，房子还是很容易脱手的，只是溢价高低而已。
Realtor.com的分析长Danielle Hale指出，分析新冠疫情发生以来三年的房屋成交价格后，今年4月是最佳卖点，因为需求最高，但卖屋者少，对象不多的情况下，买方愿意放手一搏的意愿更高，因此多半能够很快就能成交，还能拿到不错的溢价。
不过不是每个都会区都适合在4月出售，其中包括费城、迈阿密、亚特兰大、凤凰城、圣路易斯、夏洛特、圣安东尼奥、辛辛那提这八个城市的最佳卖点就落在5月。
美国房价涨幅45年罕见 硅谷加价百万美元竞标
中央社／旧金山
4/03/2022
根据房地产分析，去年至今是美国房价45年来涨幅最快的12个月，旧金山湾区房市需求强劲，购屋者加价竞标，甚至加到比原价高出100万美元成交。
COVID-19（2019冠状病毒疾病）疫情爆发两年多来，从去年开始，美国除了车市出现新车二手车齐飙涨的现象外，房市也发烧。
旧金山湾区有9个郡，典型独门独院的房子，卖价几乎比屋主原开价再追加6%的价位成交。根据加州房地产经纪人协会（California Association of Realtors）追踪自1995年的数字至今，从未这么高。以去年底来说，这类房型均价是125万美元。
某些特定地点抢标的情形更厉害，旧金山市区房子平均成交价比开价高出21%，硅谷圣克拉拉郡（Santa Clara）最后的平均成交价比开价高17%。而且房子几乎在上市7天之内就成交，这也创下加州房仲协会统计「史上卖房最快速的纪录」。
来自台湾、在加州帕罗奥图（Palo Alto）担任房地产经纪人15年的江宜芳（Emily Chiang）告诉中央社记者，旧金山湾区以硅谷为主的科技工作机会多、未来性看好，买房的需求依旧很大。
以去年帕罗奥图某间上市开卖的房屋为例，土地面积6000平方呎（约169坪）、建坪1700平方呎（约48坪），卖方开价245万美元，最后成交价370万美元。
「加价100万美元」以上才能买房的现象，江宜芳解读为房市的「钓鱼策略」，卖方开出比市场行情低的价格，让更多人出价竞标、冲高价钱，最后房子的成交价仍会反映市场行情。
「硅谷3房、一厕独栋屋老房子，如果定价低于市场价20万美元以上，很可能会有30多个人有兴趣」，她提醒来自海外的买家、或口袋很深却不了解加州房市的人要做好功课。
江宜芳告诉记者，尤其一些老旧的房子经过装潢整理后，摆上漂亮的家具、卖相变得很好，吸引首购的年轻家庭或单身上班族，「直接入住、不必再花时间心力改装房子」。
近日她观察到一个有趣的特殊现象，她代售搜索引擎龙头谷歌（Google）总部山景市（Mountain View）附近一间联排式住宅（town house），来看房的大多是首次购屋者，有6到7成的潜在买家是中国背景的年轻单身女性，她们在美国出生或来美念大学，到硅谷科技业工作，部分由父母陪同看屋。这和过去以男性工程师立业成家之后买房的市场状况大不相同。
正当千禧世代在找首购屋，许多担心美国的房贷利率会因为通膨因素提高，再加上美股震荡、把钱拿出来换成房地产的人增多，但是房源并没有那么多。
加价竞争让许多需要房子的人感到挫折。加州房仲协会数据显示，今年1月市场上的房源比两年前同期少了4成。美国房价爬得比人们的平均收入快，去年年底时旧金山湾区仅有不到1/4的家庭有能力负担购房的资金，买得起房子的人几乎只有2012年同期的一半。
江宜芳进一步说明，2000年旧金山湾区买房一样需要竞标抢购，然而多数购屋者还能以贷款买房；2007年时，亚洲的资金进到美国，当时流行「全现金」购屋。
她观察，这两年，买不买得到硅谷的房子，取决于是否有充裕的现金、高自备款，外加「快速决定」的魄力，不然在这波买房的起点可能就出局了。
Federal Reserve warns of brewing US housing bubble
But experts say bubble won’t burst like it did in 2008 recession, especially in growing cities like Jacksonville
4/01/2022
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Economists with the Federal Reserve issued an unsettling warning to millions of potential homebuyers, cautioning that the real estate market is showing signs of a brewing U.S. housing bubble.
But experts who News4JAX spoke with say the bubble won’t burst like it did in the 2008 recession, especially in growing cities like Jacksonville — which instead might continue to see a home and rent affordability crisis.
As Northeast Florida home prices continue to soar, some buyers are so desperate that they are willing to forgo a house inspection.
It’s those rising prices that economists with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas say are out of step with the rest of the real estate market and could lead to the bubble bursting.
But according to real estate experts, unlike a decade and a half ago, Florida has limited inventory versus an oversupply of homes — which real estate economist Ken Johnson, with Florida Atlantic University, says will lead to a drawn-out affordability crisis.
“I think what we will talk about this bubble, if you will, and I use that term to emphasize that there’s going to be some pain involved in this,” Johnson said. “And rather than seeing prices crash, I think the Fed is perhaps a little bit off on that, at least for Jacksonville.”
Johnson says the prices of homes may eventually crash in other metropolitan areas like Memphis, Tennessee, and Detroit, Michigan — cities where he says the population simply isn’t growing. But that’s certainly not the case in Northeast Florida as more and more people are coming to the Sunshine State.
“Too many times people interpret that word ‘bubble bust,’ just what happened back in ‘08,” said Northeast Florida Association of Realtors President Mark Rosener. “And I really don’t see any signs that, that is happening.”
Rosener expects a more normal selling season in the upcoming summer and fall months, pointing to the equity homeowners have gained during this red hot sellers’ market.
“We have more equity in our homes today as Americans than ever before — historic highs. What happened the last time was more of a banking industry failure, and people were extending themselves beyond their means. And the supply was much higher than it is today. And there wasn’t any equity in their homes. That makes a difference,” Rosener said.
Homes in North Florida are selling for 37% more than they should be, according to real estate experts. They say long-term effects we’ll feel in the Jacksonville area will be continued high home prices and perhaps even higher rent.
休士顿房市热 房价、租金都涨 专家：明年还会再涨
世界新闻网
4/01/2022
休士顿房地产有多热？2022年买卖的平均价已经上涨了13%，租金更成长15.7%。但是休士顿还不是德州租金涨最凶的地方，奥斯汀年增28%，达福地区（Dallas/Fort Worth）增加21.1%，圣安东尼奥17.9%。
但专家说，这波涨势不是泡沫，因为供给一直无法满足需求，因此房价今年还将再涨四个百分点，明年五个百分点。所以等得越久，价格愈贵。
Houston Association of Realtors主席Jennifer Wauhob说，今年此时的买卖价格已经年增13%。她说，去年的均价是36万元左右，但是近日的成交均价已经涨到39万5000元。同时，卖房者不断出现，因此不是泡沫，而是真的供不应求。
Houston Apartment Association的主席Christy Rodriguez说，休士顿地区租金已经年增15.7%，如果打算续租，房客最好货比三家，才不会吃亏。
全美租房最实惠城市 北卡洛丽排第十名
世界新闻网
3/30/2022
房地产网站Realtor.com最近发布的报告显示，北卡洛丽在今年2月份全美十大租房最实惠大城市中排名第十，尽管如此，洛丽地区的租金目前仍在持续上涨。
该报告指出，在美国50个人口最多的大都市中，洛丽挤入租金最经济实惠城市的前十名单。不过该报告也说明，即使在这些租金较负担得起的地区，「租金的增长速度也超过了收入，在工资中所占的比率也比以前更大。」
报告数据显示，洛丽今年的整体租金中位为1561元，比去年的1300元上涨了20.7%。此外，数据中各种类别的房型，今年的租金增幅都比去年大，譬如单间公寓(studio)目前租金中位为每月1472元，一年内增长了26.6%；一房公寓的租金中位现为1440元，比一年前上涨了22.4%；两房公寓的租金中位现在是1750元，比一年前的1440元上涨了21.7%。
如果去年签下的租约是1300元，今年租金上涨20%，变成每月要支付1560元房租，对一些人来说，这可能意味着他们必须被迫搬出原本的房子或公寓。与此同时，维克郡的房地产市场也继续飙升。WRAL电视台报导，该郡2月份房价中值飙升至42万元，创下新高。
不只房价与房租频创纪录，根据美国劳工统计局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)的最新数据，美国自2021年2月至2022年2月，通货膨胀率为7.9%，达到40年来的最高点。其他消费品的价格也在上涨，尤其是食品和汽油。
通膨难降…1月房租较去年同期涨15.2% 恐继续成长
世界新闻网
3/10/2022
近来万物齐涨的趋势压得让人难以喘息，随着新冠疫情后的经济复苏，租屋市场供不应求的情况造成去年房租涨势更加惊人；根据房地产仲介网站Redfin统计，今年1月的房租平均较去年同期增加15.2%，而且恐怕只有继续成长的趋势。
早在疫情爆发前，由于新成屋的完成率远远落后于市场需求，房租就已开始上涨；同时，房价也持续上升，使得许多原本计划购屋的租屋族打退堂鼓，也让房东顺势推动租金涨势。
随着国内民众的生活逐渐回归到疫情前的模式，新屋市场的需求在2021年急遽成长，但由于疫情影响和一系列供应链紧缩使得建设工程延宕，房客只能在供应有限的市场内以更有利的价格吸引房东。
「租屋需求扩张地太过快速，远远超越市场的供应量。」市调机构Apartment List的分析师沃尔诺克(Rob Warnock)解释：「尤其供应链在疫情间受创严重，反弹更加剧烈。」
沃尔诺克进一步指出，今年春天到夏天房租都会持续上涨，就连房价也可能创下年度最高纪录，沃尔诺克说：「如今出租公寓短缺，租金上涨的速度将会超越疫情前，不过相对2020年，疫情对民众生活的冲击和经济影响都会相对削弱许多。」
除此之外，民生必需品也难逃涨价的命运，去年的食物和能源价格都已飙升一波，加上今年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，全球石油、天然气和小麦等原物料价格的波动更加猛烈。
虽说民众可通过民生用品开销的调整尽可能降低通膨的冲击，但房租却是无人能避免的，若无法如期支付可能造成债务的雪球愈滚愈大，对家庭的伤害更加严重，旧金山联邦储备银行 在上个月研究报告中写道：「租金与房价通涨将是整体通膨趋势下的重大风险之一。」
Rents Continue Surging: Where They’re Rising the Most
By Sharon Lurye
10/30/2021
The COVID-19 pandemic sent rental prices tumbling as city dwellers fled for the hills, but the latest data shows those prices haven’t just recovered—they’re surging to a new all-time high.
Median rents jumped 13.6% compared with last year in the 50 largest metro areas of the U.S. as people start to return to cities, according to monthly rental report from Realtor.com®. Rents hit a median price of $1,654 in September, which means renters are paying $198 more compared with the same time last year and an extra $222 versus two years ago, before the pandemic began.
(Metros include the main city and surrounding towns, suburbs, and smaller cities.)
“It really highlights how challenging affordability is at this point,” says George Ratiu, manager of economic research for Realtor.com.
This surge in rent is coming at the same time that buying a house is getting less affordable, too. Home prices are at record highs and more people are returning to cities, which creates more competition and higher prices in the rental market.
In addition, the federal government ended its moratorium on evictions. This means the foreclosure rate is going up, so more people may be forced to sell their home and rent instead. It also means landlords have more power to kick out tenants and raise the rent on whoever moves in next.
However, the increase in rents does at least signal that the economy is recovering from COVID-19, as tenants come back to cities and support local businesses.
Growth was particularly high in metros such as Tampa, FL, which includes St. Petersburg, which has seen a whopping 33.3% increase in rental prices. Monthly rents were a median $1,800 in the Florida city.
“The rental market is as tough as the sales market,” says Alma Alexander, a Realtor who’s with Coldwell Banker in Tampa.
She says a growing economy and strong sports industry are attracting many people to the Tampa region. The pandemic also gave the area a boost as many folks in snowier areas who could work remotely headed for cheaper, sunnier parts of the country. But in cities across Florida, there’s simply not enough housing to meet the demand.
The other metro areas with the highest yearly growth in median rent were Miami, at 31.6%; Riverside, CA, at 26.5%; Phoenix, at 26.4%; and Las Vegas, at 25.9%.
The pandemic saw a particularly large exodus of renters from big tech hubs like Seattle and Austin, TX, since tech-related jobs are often well-suited for remote work. As of September, rents in those cities are largely back to normal, and in some cases even higher than they were at the beginning of March 2020.
In Seattle, for example, median rents dropped around $300 from March 2020 to January 2021, from $2,923 to $2,610. As of September, they’re back to almost the same price they were before, at $2,895 a month. In Austin, rents last month were around 20% higher than they were in March 2020, jumping from $1,367 to $1,647.
More people returning to these tech hubs is a good sign generally for big cities and the U.S.
“In a sense, they were bellwether markets for when rental housing would see a return toward some degree of normal,” says Ratiu.
Zillow’s zeal to outbid for houses backfires in flipping fumble
Patrick Clark and Noah Buhayal | Bloomberg
10/27/2021
Faced with the fastest-growing real estate prices in US history, Zillow Group has tweaked algorithms to enhance home flipping operations to offer higher offers.
It ended up with so many successful bids that I had to stop offering new offers for the property. Now, after buying more homes than ever in the third quarter, the company is tackling the unprocessed portion of homes that need to be repaired and sold in the face of unpleasant reality. The slowdown in price increases has cost many homes.
According to a YipitData survey, Zillow launched a record number of homes on the market in September, listing properties with the lowest markup since November 2018. According to Yipit, in the third quarter, prices fell by almost half of the US listing, indicating that inventories are lower than expected.
The shift is on display in places such as Atlanta and Phoenix, two markets where home prices are skyrocketing. Zillow’s approximately 250 active list in Phoenix is now on average 6% cheaper than the company paid for homes.
According to data compiled by Mike Delprete, a real estate technology strategist and scholar at the University of Colorado at Boulder, this represents a $ 29,000 discount on typical real estate.
“All the key indicators from Zillow over the last few months are totally meaningless,” said Del Prete. “It’s like making a decision a couple of months behind the market.”
Zillow’s newly discovered aggression was good for people like Abidemi Bolatiwa who were watching the process run in real time. According to real estate records, he sold his four-bedroom home in Phoenix to Zillow in late September for $ 531,300, paying a convenient fee that was cheaper than traditional agency fees.
Mr. Volatiwa also Opendoor Technologies, That would have paid him about $ 504,000. Ten days after Zillow bought the home, the property went public for $ 505,900. When it didn’t sell, the company cut another $ 11,000 to $ 494,900.
According to DelPrete’s analysis, Zillow’s biggest competitor, Opendoor, continues to sell more homes than it buys, while home sales in Phoenix are declining. It also performs well in Atlanta, where Opendoor lists homes with a premium of 6.5% of the purchase price compared to Zillow’s 1.3% spread.
Zillow representatives declined to comment.
The company said on October 18th: It will stop making new offers to buy a home Reduce your share by 9.4% while processing the backlog. However, analysts most often shrugged off operational stumbling blocks and stocks recovered from these losses. The home flipping business dating back to 2018 is not yet profitable.
“Prices turned them on, they were a bit flatfoot, and probably a little too aggressive about bidding,” said Brad Ericsson, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “They probably don’t care so much. Making money isn’t that important at this stage of the game.”
Zillow and Opendoor are practicing a high-tech spin of home flipping called iBuying. Both companies use software-based algorithms to predict changes in home prices. They charge a fee instead of a typical real estate agent’s fee and pitch to their customers about the convenience of the service. Buying thousands of homes every quarter is a complex process and requires a lot of precision to do it right.
Rich Barton, CEO of Zillow, emphasizes that it is important to make competitive offers to reach the scale needed to make a profit in the business. He lamented in an August call with investors that soaring home prices have widened the spread between the cost of Zillow buying and repairing homes and the cost of selling real estate. rice field. As a result, the company, which purchased 3,800 units in the second quarter, has set a goal of purchasing 5,000 units a month by 2024 and is offering more offers.
“We saw a rapid increase in conversions throughout the quarter as we improved the strength of our offers,” he said.
Zillow and Opendoor are practicing a high-tech spin of home flipping called iBuying. Both companies use software-based algorithms to predict changes in home prices.
Richard Flor talked to a realtor this summer about listing a three-bedroom, three-bathroom rental for about $ 390,000 in the western suburbs of Phoenix, Tolleson, Arizona. Instead, he sold it to Zillow in September for about $ 412,000 and paid 1% of the service.
He then saw Zillow make a minor repair and relist the house for $ 387,000 two weeks later.
“I was wondering,’How do they make money,’” Flor said. “Maybe they know what I don’t know.”
Here’s why Zillow won’t be buying any more homes to renovate and resell this year
By JOE HERNANDEZ
10/20/2021
Al Bello/Getty Images
The real estate website Zillow announced it would stop buying and renovating homes through the end of the year as it works through a backlog of properties and it deals with worker and supply shortages.
“We’re operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces,” Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow’s chief operating officer, said in a statement.
“We have not been exempt from these market and capacity issues and we now have an operational backlog for renovations and closings,” he added.
Through its Zillow Offers program, the company buys homes directly from sellers, completes the necessary upgrades and lists them for sale. This lets sellers avoid having to do repairs or set up showings themselves, the company says.
Zillow, which is known for its online real estate listings, told shareholders that it purchased 3,805 homes through the program in the second quarter of this year, a major increase over previous years.
Zillow Offers, which launched in 2019, sold 2,086 homes and made a gross profit of $71 million over the same period.
The company announced on Monday that it wouldn’t sign any new contracts to buy homes through the end of 2021. Zillow said that it would still market and sell homes through the program and that it would also continue to buy houses with contracts that have already been signed but have yet to close.
The construction industry was one of many that were hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the cost of building materials soar. Meanwhile, the demand for homes — as well as their price tags — has surged.
While the astronomical prices of wood have decreased from their recent highs, other materials such as steel and piping remain costly or in short supply. On top of that, there is a serious shortage of construction workers.
Both the construction of new homes and the authorization of building permits fell in September compared with the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
In an interview with Marketplace Morning Report last month, Associated Builders and Contractors economist Anirban Basu said the coronavirus was still causing problems in the housing industry. “The spread of the delta variant globally has increased supply chain issues. It means higher prices for inputs; it raises the cost of delivering construction services,” Basu said.
Zillow slams the brakes on home buying as it struggles to manage its backlog of inventory
By Anna Bahney, CNN Business
10/18/2021
Zillow will stop buying homes through Zillow Offers for the rest of the year, as the company’s iBuying program goes from full speed to full stop.
The company announced on Monday it would not contract to buy any more homes in 2021 in order to work through the backlog of homes it has already bought.
The “iBuyer” model used by Zillow and other real estate companies entails purchasing homes directly from sellers, and then re-listing the properties after doing minor work. But thanks to the current shortage on labor and materials, Zillow can’t close, renovate and resell the homes fast enough.
“We’re operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces,” said Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow’s chief operating officer, in a statement.
“Pausing new contracts will enable us to focus on sellers already under contract with us and our current home inventory,” said Wacksman.
Zillow will still market and sell the homes it has acquired through Zillow Offers, which has been on a purchasing tear this year. It bought 3,805 homes in the second quarter — a record high for the company and more than double the number of homes bought in the first quarter, according to a note to company shareholders.
Zillow, known for its online real estate listings, introduced an iBuyer program, Zillow Offers, in 2018 and now operates in 25 cities. Like other iBuyers — such as Opendoor, RedfinNow and Offerpad — Zillow Offers uses data and algorithms about the property and the market to make a cash offer on an off-market home, and buys directly from the homeowner.
IBuyers appeal to home sellers because closings can take place anywhere from 7 to 90 days after the contract is signed and can provide some certainty and control over the sale of their home without the hassle of finding an agent and prepping the house for market. According to Zillow, the fee to the seller for Zillow Offers averages 5%, but can vary based on market conditions.
Home purchases by iBuyers now account for about 1% of the market, according to a report from Zillow. The share is still a tiny part of the whole market, but shows tremendous growth over the past few years as the iBuyer share in some cities, like Phoenix, Atlanta or Charlotte, North Carolina, now tops 5%.
Zillow wasn’t alone among iBuyers in buying a lot of homes this year. IBuyers bought more houses, at higher prices, in the second quarter of this year than in any other quarter, according to research from Mike DelPrete, an independent real estate technology strategist and scholar in residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. That has surprised some skeptics who did not think the iBuyer model would be appealing to home sellers in a hot market.
His research suggests that sellers are drawn to the certainty and ease of iBuying and the market conditions fueled its growth.
Zillow’s move to halt purchases is surprising, he said, particularly because it is so sudden.
“iBuyers have access to a tremendous amount of data, they can see months into the future and plan their inventory,” said DelPrete. “So the fact that Zillow didn’t see this coming and wasn’t able to make adjustments before it had to resort to an iBuying lockdown is pretty surprising.”
This shift, he said, demonstrates how difficult this business model is to scale up. Large iBuyers need to be skilled at both managing billions of dollars in capital, but also the logistical specifics of prepping a home for sale, down to drywall and painting and closing deals.
“There is only so much that technology can do,” said DelPrete. “At the end of the day you need people to process a lot of transactions.”
However, the halt appears to be a Zillow-specific problem, not an iBuyer industry problem, DelPrete said.
“Zillow just kept barreling down and now they’ve hit this wall,” he said.
This is not the situation a growth-focused company wants to be in, he said.
“If you’re trying to be number one in the market, slamming on the brakes is one of the worst things you can do,” said DelPrete. “You want to make some adjustments before you get to that point — slow down, switch gears. This is not the preferred outcome for Zillow.”
Opendoor, the leading iBuyer ahead of Zillow at a distant second, said in a statement it is still open for business.
‘Insatiable demand’ for warehouse space continues in NJ
Rents surge to record high as developers scour state for booming logistics industry
By JON HURDLE
10/16/2021
Rents surged and vacancies dropped to a record low for warehouses and other industrial buildings in north and central New Jersey from June to September, a new report said Wednesday, as demand from e-commerce continued to fuel the state’s red-hot market for logistics space.
The asking price for industrial rents rose 15.6% to a record $10.72 per square foot while vacancies fell to 3.4% from 3.8% only three months earlier. For warehouses, which account for about three-quarters of the overall industrial market, the vacancy rate was even lower, at 2.9%, according to the report from Newmark, a commercial real estate company.
As in the first half of 2021, the growth was again driven by very strong demand from logistics companies for space to store and distribute an avalanche of goods ordered online.
“Insatiable demand from ecommerce, corresponding with a long-term shift in consumer spending habits towards online spending and away from traditional retail stores remains a key driver of leasing activity,” the report said.
Demand for logistics space has been strong for five years but was fueled further over the past year by online shopping during the pandemic. It has also been driven by the state’s proximity to Port Newark-Elizabeth where one of the nation’s largest volumes of consumer imports enters the country, and by New Jersey’s position at the heart of the populous Northeast market.
While the boom has created thousands of jobs, including some 50,000 at Amazon alone, it has also sparked protests and lawsuits in some communities where residents fear that local roads will be choked by new truck traffic, and that remaining rural enclaves will be occupied by giant warehouses that may cover a million square feet or more.
In the Legislature, public concern that warehouses affect areas beyond the towns where they are built has also spawned a bill co-sponsored by Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Gloucester) that would require towns facing a warehouse application to alert neighboring municipalities and try to win their support for the project.
Numbers show big-time growth
The new data shows the boom is only accelerating. Industrial space under construction, almost all of which was for warehouses, rose to 13.9 million square feet in the latest quarter from 13.4 million in the second quarter of 2021. Despite a supply shortage, the amount of industrial space leased in the first three quarters of this year, 28 million square feet, exceeded that for all of 2020.
In another key indicator of the strength of demand, net absorption — the difference between the amount of industrial property that became occupied during the quarter, and that which became vacant — jumped to 4.7 million square feet in the latest quarter from 3.1 million square feet in the previous three months.
“It’s remarkable to me that it keeps going up,” said Tim Evans, director of research at New Jersey Future, a nonprofit that advocates for “smart growth.” He said the warehouse boom can’t be fully explained by the surge in online shopping during the pandemic, and may have also been fueled by an increase in the volume of imported goods arriving at Port Newark-Elizabeth from Asia since the Panama Canal was widened to accommodate bigger ships in 2016.
Evans predicted that the continued high demand for warehouse space will result in both vacant and previously developed land being obtained for an industry that wants to be as close to the port as it can. That process may involve “second-generation” redevelopment of sites that first held factories, then became office parks, and would now be occupied by warehouses.
“As factories close to the port get used up, they might start buying second-generation redevelopment sites like office parks,” he said.
The report said there’s a “widening imbalance” between supply and demand, especially in sub-markets where available land is limited. They include the Meadowlands, where rents jumped 28.5% in the latest quarter compared with a year earlier. The report predicted that the sharply higher rents there will spur developers to redevelop land or reuse existing buildings.
Major transactions included 840,000 square feet leased to Peloton, the fitness equipment maker, at Linden; 511,000 square feet in Warren County to Alan Ritchey, a logistics provider, and 326,000 square feet in the Meadowlands taken by TJ Maxx, a clothing retailer.
In the warehouse sector specifically, the highest asking rent among 21 local markets was $14.73 per square foot in the Meadowlands, followed by $14 in the market around New Jersey Turnpike Exit 12 where the vacancy rate was virtually nonexistent at 0.1%.
No end in sight
There’s no sign that high rents and low vacancy rates will let up any time soon, given continuing high demand from logistics companies, the report said. It forecast that developers will continue to encounter rising construction costs, shipping delays and labor shortages.
“In the coming months, robust demand from ecommerce and logistics companies is expected to maintain a record low vacancy rate, driving further growth in warehouse rents,” it said.
Micah Rasmussen, a Rider University professor who led a successful campaign against a planned warehouse in Upper Freehold earlier this year, said people should consider whether New Jersey is getting over-developed — in light of the ongoing warehouse boom and the devastating flooding caused by Tropical Storm Ida.
“I think the shortcomings of our over-development became much clearer to a lot of people during Ida,” he said. “We need to rethink what we’re doing, and given what’s happening in the market, it seems like the perfect time for us to do that.”
In N.J., the fall housing market is starting to look better for buyers
BY ALICIA SMITH
10/08/2021
The red hot residential real estate market is beginning to cool slightly, and this trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the year.
Low interest rates, low inventory, and buyers looking to leave urban areas, such as New York City, for more space in the suburbs, were largely driven by cheap interest rate rates and low stock levels in New Jersey City.
However, according to Jeffrey Otteau, a real estate economist and president of the Otteaux Group, the home buying demand is running at slowed pace in New Jersey four months later.
He explained that Its not that it’s collapsing, he said. It’s normalizing.
According to Otteau’s data, contract sales were down statewide by 12 percent in June, 22 percent on July, 16 percent, and 22 cents in August for the first three weeks of September.
Sales are lowering, according to him, because home prices have risen so much that they are unaffordable even with low interest rates. And urban flight in the middle of the epidemic, which brought city-dwellers who wanted more room to the suburbs, has ended.
Migration from the city to the suburbs is now reversing as cities renown, Otteau said. As employers are advising workers to return to the office, were starting to see housing shift back in toward the city.
According to Otteau’s data, contract sales in Hudson County have risen by 35% every year to date, according to him.
And according to New Jersey Realtors August report, closed sales in Hudson County were up 17.1% in August alone, despite closed doors falling by 10% statewide.
Irene Barnaby of Compass in downtown Jersey City said she’s seeing buyers who were renting in the area and want to profit from low interest rates, international buyers, and some of the situations when people who fled Hudson County” traffic now want back.
One couple she worked with sold their three-bedroom apartment in downtown Jersey City and moved to Maplewood in May 2020. They called her about 6 months ago and stated they sold their Maplewood house and were returning to Jersey City.
They missed the vibrancy and being in the center of the action, and having access to New York City, Barnaby stated.
People who are buying in Hudson County still want space, she added. The majority of people are searching for two or more bedrooms and want some sort of outdoor space. She said, “One-bedrooms are difficult to sell,” and she remarked.
Another factor slowing home sales overall is that home prices rose 12% in 2020 and are on the verge of risen 17 percent this year, according to Otteau, stating that prices grew an average of about 3% for each of the previous 7 years.
House prices can only rise as fast as salaries, he said. Banks won’t lend buyers enough money to afford a house after ten years of that (faster than salary growth). There must be a correction to follow, if home prices rise faster than salaries.
Otteau predicts a price increase of 5% in 2022 and regress of 5 percent in the 2023.
However, he said, it’s still a good moment to purchase. He explained, “You’re going to get a lower interest rate now than in the future,” he added.
According to Reuters, American Federal Reserve policymakers may be able to raise interest rates next year.
According to Otteau’s statistics, the highest segment of the housing market is homes in the $1 million to $2.5 million sales range, which is responsible for approximately 45 percent of sales, followed by the $600,000 to $1 millions sales spectrum, with 30 percent sales.
Those buyers are chasing up and, in the process of purchasing, they’re also increasing the inventory of homes on the market because they sell their existing homes.
People were concerned about job security, so they didn’t want to take on a larger mortgage, Otteau said, because trade-up buyers were not selling last year. They were concerned that strangers gathered across their houses in the middle of a health crisis.
However, the trade-up market hasn’t completely exploded.
Missy Iemmello, office manager for Weichert Realtors in Morris Plains, whose 120 agents work in the Morris, Sussex, Warren, Bergen, and Essex counties, said in September that she saw a rise in inventory that quickly slowed.
We were all delighted. We believed they’ve been anticipating this year, Iemmello added. Then it was simply a short blimp, all of oh, this was subsequently merely en route to victory.
Hurricane Ida, according to Iemmello, stopped the trend.
People got water where they never had water before, she explained. I believe we should see inventory numbers increase in the following weeks.
Frustrated House Hunters Are Giving up on Buying Only to Face an Expensive Rental Market
By Aly J. Yale
9/22/2021
Cramped in a one-bedroom, new parents Kristina and David Mahon were desperate to buy a larger home. But after scouring the Pompano Beach, Florida market for nearly a year (and losing out on 20 houses in the process), the pair eventually gave up.
Now, the couple — with a 10-month old baby in tow, no less — are renting, a decision Kristina says they felt “forced” into.
“I feel like I’m wasting money for something that’s not mine,” Kristina says. The rental“options were very limited, and the prices were on the high side of what we were comfortable spending on a rental.”
The Mahons’ is a common storyline these days, according to those in the industry. Burned-out house hunters are tired of bidding wars, rising prices and dwindling options and are bowing out of the purchase market, opting to rent instead.
“It’s common given the current market and environment that we are in,” says Kaley Tuning, the Native Realty agent who worked with the Mahons. “It just becomes frustrating for the everyday buyer. I’ve had buyers bid upwards of $40,000 over asking price and still get outbid.”
Unfortunately, the pivot to renting isn’t always easy. While the move may afford frustrated buyers time to wait out the competitive housing market, it often means entering an equally hot rental scene — one where rising rents and dwindling supply are growing concerns.
According to Realtor.com, median national rents grew a whopping 11.5% between August 2020 and August 2021. And rent applications? Those are up as much as 95% in some cities, according to apartment listing platform RentCafe.
For hopeful homeowners, it’s made for a unique catch-22 that’s as frustrating as it is costly.
Rents are on the rise
It’s no secret the housing market’s been hot this year. The purchase market has boomed in nearly every corner of the nation since last spring. Home prices are up 17% over the year, and inventory, while improving, is still near record lows.
The rental picture has been more mixed, though. At the start of the pandemic, vacancies in big cities rose and prices dropped, while demand for suburban rentals skyrocketed. Now, rents are bouncing back across the country, reaching well above pre-pandemic levels in many areas.
According to Realtor.com, the typical rent now clocks in at $1,633 per month — $169 more than this time last year and almost $200 more than 2019’s numbers. And in nearly half of the country’s biggest cities? Monthly starter home payments are more affordable than average rents.
The hot housing market has a lot to do with this spike in rent costs. With rising home prices and limited for-sale listings, more and more buyers are stepping back. This puts pressure on rental inventory and drives up rents.
As Lisa Harris, an agent at RE/MAX Center in Braselton, Georgia, explains, “Fewer homes listed for sale and much higher prices for them have kept many want-to-be buyers in their rental units, taxing the rental supply.”
The pandemic plays a role, too. Eviction bans have kept many non-paying renters in place, tying up units for much of the last year. While the CDC’s eviction moratorium was shot down late last month, the experience has made many landlords warier than ever.
“Not only have the prices increased, but the demand on tenant screening seems to be getting much more stringent,” Harris says. “Landlords are seeking tenants with higher credit scores, higher deposits, no pets, a clean criminal history and more.”
The trickle-down of higher rents
Alex Lashner, like the Mahons, has experienced the difficult rental market firsthand. She even had to expand her rental search to account for price increases and is now looking as far as 90 minutes from her office just to stay on budget.
“I’m hoping it will be a short-term sacrifice so I can buy closer to my workplace a few years down the line,” she says.
Lashner was originally looking to buy her first home somewhere in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, but due to the competitiveness of the market — and her refusal to waive contingencies or overpay (as many buyers are forced to do lately), she lost out on every property she bid on. She finally opted to rent, only to find rising prices there, too.
“I’m frustrated that buying a three-bedroom home in my budget is cheaper than renting when you compare the monthly costs of a mortgage, property taxes and HOA fees versus the rental costs for a two-bedroom or even a one-bedroom apartment,” Lashner says. “That’s where my real sticker shock is.”
Rising rents are more than just a budgetary strain for hopeful buyers, though. They also make it harder to save, which could push back those homebuying goals even further. The Mahons are one household in that camp, something Kristina calls “frustrating.”
“Instead of us paying down our own mortgage and building equity, we are paying someone else’s mortgage,” she says. “For the next year or as long as we are renting, we will not be able to save as much as we had hoped.”
Buyers who are forced to sign long-term leases have another dilemma, too: What if mortgage rates go up?
Interest rates have been hovering near historic lows for months now and have played a major role in boosting buyer demand. Kristi Nowrouzi, a mortgage loan officer with Geneva Financial, says many buyers who have backed out of the market recently are concerned those conditions could change.
“There’s a fear of missing out on the low-interest-rate environment,” Nowrouzi says. “Inflation is blowing up and who knows what rates will look like next year at the end of an annual lease agreement.”
What’s the solution?
One option for buyers facing sky-high rents is to opt for a month-to-month lease. The flexibility usually comes with a slightly higher monthly rent, but it ensures you can act quickly should the right house hit the market.
“By doing a month-to-month lease, even though rent might be slightly higher than signing a long-term lease, they can be ready to take action,” says Shmuel Shayowitz, president and chief lending officer at Approved Funding, a mortgage lender in New Jersey. “They can also continue to actively look for homes and, even if pricing doesn’t soften, be in a better position to act.”
Fortunately, strategies like this might not be necessary for long. Buyers still face plenty of challenges, but recent data points to growing housing supply — particularly in the starter home segment. Existing home sales have also slowed, falling 2% in August, and price growth has decelerated as well. According to Realtor.com, 17% of all listings had price reductions in August.
“The market is absolutely shifting now, and prices are decreasing a bit and sellers aren’t getting as high price per square feet as they were a few months ago,” Nowrouzi says.
A completely cooled-off market, though? That could be a long way in the future. Until then, Tuning says, “Patience is a virtue.”
为解住严重宅荒 美联邦政府要盖10万户平价宅
来源：经济日报
9/02/2021
在美国房价持续高涨之际，白宫官员表示，美国政府为纾解严重住宅荒，将采取一系列立即可实施的步骤，以现有经费和权力，在未来三年兴建、销售10万户平价住宅。
路透引述官员说法报导，这套计划最快1日宣布，将聚焦于扩大对个人和非营利机构销售房屋，同时对大型投资人买房设限。第2季全美各地每售出六户住宅，就有一户被投资大户买走。
美国房屋需求在新冠肺炎疫情爆发初期激增，反映民众为居家办公和学习购置更宽敞的房子。但待售屋不足和供应链瓶颈把房价推得更高，租金行情跟着水涨船高，加重家庭财务负担。白宫官员说，全美平价住宅估计短缺多达400万户。
白宫官员表示，美国总统拜登(专题)已提议，斥资逾3,000亿美元增建200万户平价住宅，这项措施是3.5兆美元基础建设投资案的一部分，正在国会审议中。但拜登希望推动立即可行步骤。
这套新计划将涵盖乡村与都会地区的住宅建案，重点摆在平价房市，希望能协助房屋自有率偏低的有色人种族群。
此计划将由美国住宅与都市发展部（HUB）部长法吉（Marcia Fudge）宣布，具体行动由该部、财政部及房贷机构房利美（Fannie Mae）与房地美（Freddie Mae）等联邦监管机构共同规划。“两房”合计占全美11兆美元房贷市场的一半。其中，一大关键步骤是重启曾由财政部与HUB合办但在2019年结束的“风险分摊计划”，该计划让各州住宅金融机构能扩大提供低利贷款，促进兴建平价住宅。
此计划也将提高组合屋及二至四户多户型不动产的供应量，希望透过房地美扩大融资达成目标。同时也将采取行动，限制对大型投资人销售一些由联邦住宅管理局（FHA）提供担保的不动产。
拜登政府另打算与各州和地方政府合作运用现有联邦资金，并协助减少排他性分区（exclusionary zoning）等阻挠提高住宅供应量的做法。
White House tackles housing shortage with plan for 100,000 affordable homes
By Andrea Shalal
9/02/2021
WASHINGTON, Aug 31 (Reuters) – The Biden administration is taking steps to address a severe housing shortage in the United States by creating and selling 100,000 affordable homes over the next three years using existing funds, the White House said on Wednesday.
The moves will focus on boosting home sales to individuals and non-profit organizations, while limiting sales to large investors, who scooped up one in six homes sold in the second quarter, according to a White House statement.
Demand for housing soared early in the pandemic as Americans sought more spacious accommodations for home offices and home schooling, but a shortage of homes for sale and supply chain bottlenecks have driven housing prices sharply higher.
Rental prices, which typically follow the lead of house prices, are also a big concern, given that even before the pandemic 11 million families – or nearly a quarter of all renters – were already spending more than half their income on rent, according to the White House.
The United States has an estimated shortage of as many as 4 million affordable housing units, White House officials say.
U.S. President Joe Biden has proposed spending over $300 billion to add 2 million more affordable housing units as part of a $3.5 trillion investment package being considered by Congress, but wanted to push forward with immediate steps that could be taken now, the White House said.
The plans will cover rural and urban housing projects, with a focus on aiding communities of color, where home ownership rates have lagged historically.
U.S. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Marcia Fudge will announce the measures after touring a new five-story affordable housing complex in Philadelphia on Wednesday.
Fudge called the initiatives “significant downpayment” on Biden’s commitment to boost the supply of affordable rental housing, expanding access to capital for state Housing Finance Agencies, empowering local communities to build more affordable housing and promoting equitable housing policies.
Specific actions are planned by Fudge’s department, the U.S. Treasury and agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which will increase financing opportunities to enable more Americans to purchase homes, the White House said.
One key step is the revival of a joint Treasury-HUD “Risk Sharing Program” that ended in 2019 and that will enable state housing financing agencies to provide more low-cost capital for affordable housing development.
The plans will also boost the supply of manufactured housing and 2-4 unit properties by expanding financing through Freddie Mac, while taking steps to limit the sale of some U.S. Federal Housing Administration-insured properties to large investors.
Investor purchases, which have been as high as one in every four homes in some communities, have driven up prices for lower-cost houses and triggered fierce competition for starter homes, the White House said.
The administration also plans to work with state and local governments to leverage existing federal funds, and help reduce exclusionary zoning and other practices that have discouraged efforts to boost the supply of housing, the official said.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency “will begin to study the interaction between exclusionary zoning and our regulated entities,” said acting Director Sandra L. Thompson.
如何计算一个投资房产的租金回报率？
By Willy Rong
3/07/2021
一直以来都有人问我，如何计算一个投资房产的租金回报率？我答过，但总是似是而非。
今天就这个问题给出我的计算公式Return Of Investment (ROI)，仅供大家参考。
这个问题要从两方面讨论，看你是全额现金买房？还是贷款80% 买房？
（全额现金买投资房产）租金回报率 = （12月的租金 – 一年的各种花费）/ 买房价
（贷款80%买投资房产）租金回报率 = （12月的租金 – 一年的各种花费和贷款 ）/ (
20%首付+ Closing Cost )
我们还是以一个$38万美元买房实例来计算，比较直观：
房子开支预算:
HOA $38/月； 保险 $120/月； 税 $356/月； 维修 $100/月。
共计 $614。
贷款 80%， 约每月还贷$1500；
租金每月$2350；去掉开支 $614； 每月净收入 $1736；
一年的总收入 $20832。
问：一个$38万美元的房产，每年的回报率？
（全额现金买投资房产）租金回报率 = （12月的租金 – 一年的各种花费）/ 买房价
$38万美元房子的租金回报率 = 一年的总收入 $20832 / 买房价$380,000 = $0.0548
全额现金$38万美元房子的租金回报率一年约为：5.5%；
（贷款80%买投资房产）租金回报率 = (12月的租金 – 一年的各种花费和贷款 ) / (
20%买房首付 + Closing Cost)
$38万美元贷款80%房子的租金回报率 = (一年的总收入$20832 – $18000) / (首付 $
76000 + $5000 Closing Cost ) = $0.0349
$38万美元贷款80%买投资房产的租金回报率一年约为：3.5%.
这个$38万美元的房子在最好学区，房子升值潜力大！
考虑到加上房子产权equity 上涨的因素，一年在6%-8%。所以要加上一个Equity 增值
率，换句话说，是用$81000 买了一个$38万美元的房产，是用杠杆买的房子。
这里有2个概念：一个是租金回报率；一个是Equity 回报率；
利用杠杆买房，就要让银行在这个房子上也赚一些钱，所以贷款租金回报率3.5%.要低
于全额现金租金回报率5.5%，这个逻辑是对的，那个2% 回报率的差让银行赚去了。
什么是智慧？智慧就是解决问题的能力！
能够把一个复杂问题简单化，用直白的方式讲清楚，这也是智慧。
现在亚特兰大地区（佐治亚），一个房子的租金回报率大概在3% ~ 6%左右，真心话，
投资房净租金回报率6%是一个不错的回报。
你若嫌上面二手房一年的租金回报率还低，你可以全现金买126包租5年的项目，一年的
租金回报率为净6%。
下面是在网上找到的租金回报率计算器，大家可以去练习：
租金回报率
https://www.calkoo.com/zh/zujin-huibao-lu
提示：算大账不算小账，可能公式不够严谨，但逻辑是对的。
Source: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Georgia/31320547.html
